Tennis · resolved market
San Marino: Alexandre Muller vs Stefano Napolitano
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa0ac64fbfdf83d9f1166e2d7c7642e394bb310d9a02460beafa542c6a73f8e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alexandre Mullerof Alexandre Muller, Stefano Napolitano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Stefano Napolitano | 16c | 5,596$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.97 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…caf0backed Alexandre Muller | 65c | 1,544$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.91 | 104 | 70.2%73 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Alexandre Muller | 73c | 1,389$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.87 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Stefano Napolitano | 9c | 1,348$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.32 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stefano Napolitano | 35c | 1,050$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.27 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Stefano Napolitano | 39c | 962.14$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.23 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Stefano Napolitano | 14c | 895.42$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Alexandre Muller | 63c | 716$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.92 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…2e6bbacked Stefano Napolitano | 38c | 657.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alexandre Muller | 74c | 627.53$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.43 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Alexandre Muller | 61c | 626.58$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Stefano Napolitano | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Alexandre Muller | 80c | 599.97$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Stefano Napolitano | 37c | 563.67$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Stefano Napolitano | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…ea3bbacked Alexandre Muller | 63c | 499.84$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.94 | 333 | 46.2%154 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Alexandre Muller | 61c | 476.04$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.59 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Stefano Napolitano | 36c | 425.8$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Stefano Napolitano | 37c | 383.06$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.22 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Alexandre Muller | 64c | 350$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…8b19backed Alexandre Muller | 61c | 295.69$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.18 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…01ccbacked Alexandre Muller | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 1,077 | 62.8%676 W · 401 L | -27.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Stefano Napolitano | 19c | 269.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 944 | 47.7%450 W · 494 L | +34.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Alexandre Muller | 64c | 265.63$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Stefano Napolitano | 39c | 259.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Alexandre Muller | 61c | 196.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Stefano Napolitano | 39c | 149.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 271 | 39.1%106 W · 165 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Stefano Napolitano | 15c | 138.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Stefano Napolitano | 20c | 137.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Stefano Napolitano | 39c | 120.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Alexandre Muller | 78c | 113.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Stefano Napolitano | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Alexandre Muller | 76c | 104.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Stefano Napolitano | 37c | 101.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Alexandre Muller | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Alexandre Muller | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -21.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Stefano Napolitano | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Stefano Napolitano | 35c | 98.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Stefano Napolitano | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Stefano Napolitano | 31c | 94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Stefano Napolitano | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 36.9%66 W · 113 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Stefano Napolitano | 19c | 85.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Stefano Napolitano | 39c | 77.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Stefano Napolitano | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Stefano Napolitano | 30c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Stefano Napolitano | 19c | 71.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba4…3fa6backed Alexandre Muller | 62c | 61.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…db33backed Alexandre Muller | 70c | 57.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 189 | 68.8%130 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Stefano Napolitano | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Stefano Napolitano | 38c | 55.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Stefano Napolitano | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Stefano Napolitano | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 40.9%70 W · 101 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Stefano Napolitano | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…6520backed Alexandre Muller | 62c | 52.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Alexandre Muller | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Stefano Napolitano | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Stefano Napolitano | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Alexandre Muller | 62c | 49.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Stefano Napolitano | 38c | 47.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Stefano Napolitano | 37c | 40.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 235 | 30.2%71 W · 164 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…3408backed Alexandre Muller | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Stefano Napolitano | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Stefano Napolitano | 38c | 35.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Stefano Napolitano | 38c | 33.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae75…9fd7backed Alexandre Muller | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f00…5396backed Alexandre Muller | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…7665backed Alexandre Muller | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Stefano Napolitano | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Alexandre Muller | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 186 | 66.7%124 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Alexandre Muller | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe668…7a6bbacked Stefano Napolitano | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…6857backed Stefano Napolitano | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…5b60backed Alexandre Muller | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…b70dbacked Alexandre Muller | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Alexandre Muller | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 196 | 37.2%73 W · 123 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…b79fbacked Alexandre Muller | 62c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 98 | 67.3%66 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…49c8backed Alexandre Muller | 63c | 16.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 468 | 51.5%241 W · 227 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.