TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

San Marino: Alexandre Muller vs Stefano Napolitano

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alexandre Mullerof Alexandre Muller, Stefano Napolitano
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,158
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,158 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed Stefano Napolitano16c5,596$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.971,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c70…caf0backed Alexandre Muller65c1,544$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.9110470.2%73 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Alexandre Muller73c1,389$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.874,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Stefano Napolitano9c1,348$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.328,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Stefano Napolitano35c1,050$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.2711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Stefano Napolitano39c962.14$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.231,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Stefano Napolitano14c895.42$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.343,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Alexandre Muller63c716$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.921,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc196…2e6bbacked Stefano Napolitano38c657.89$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25012339%48 W · 75 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alexandre Muller74c627.53$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.438,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Alexandre Muller61c626.58$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.9172452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Stefano Napolitano36c600$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2167,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Alexandre Muller80c599.97$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.361,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Stefano Napolitano37c563.67$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.11,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa2…cf15backed Stefano Napolitano38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19030339.3%119 W · 184 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Alexandre Muller63c499.84$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9433346.2%154 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Alexandre Muller61c476.04$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.594,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Stefano Napolitano36c425.8$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.993,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Stefano Napolitano37c383.06$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.223,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Alexandre Muller64c350$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.051,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5465…8b19backed Alexandre Muller61c295.69$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.185246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42d6…01ccbacked Alexandre Muller69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.861,07762.8%676 W · 401 L-27.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Stefano Napolitano19c269.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.594447.7%450 W · 494 L+34.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Alexandre Muller64c265.63$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6358931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Stefano Napolitano39c259.74$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.31,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Alexandre Muller61c196.72$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7264350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Stefano Napolitano39c149.45$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8827139.1%106 W · 165 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Stefano Napolitano15c138.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.031,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Stefano Napolitano20c137.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9455941.9%234 W · 325 L-27.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Stefano Napolitano39c120.27$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7455941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Alexandre Muller78c113.11$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.472,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Stefano Napolitano38c105$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.930746.3%142 W · 165 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Alexandre Muller76c104.83$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.981,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Stefano Napolitano37c101.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.670537.6%265 W · 440 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x92d8…a656backed Alexandre Muller63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377361.6%45 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Alexandre Muller72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.527437.2%102 W · 172 L-21.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fd6…d4a0backed Stefano Napolitano37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3711244.6%50 W · 62 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Stefano Napolitano35c98.05$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.329,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Stefano Napolitano11c95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.266,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Stefano Napolitano31c94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.144,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed Stefano Napolitano23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017936.9%66 W · 113 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Stefano Napolitano19c85.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.643144.8%193 W · 238 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Stefano Napolitano39c77.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5512035.8%43 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Stefano Napolitano39c75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Stefano Napolitano30c73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0972147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Stefano Napolitano19c71.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.715,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaba4…3fa6backed Alexandre Muller62c61.45$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.457548%36 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e4…db33backed Alexandre Muller70c57.04$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0418968.8%130 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Stefano Napolitano39c56.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Stefano Napolitano38c55.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.161,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Stefano Napolitano40c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Stefano Napolitano38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017140.9%70 W · 101 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Stefano Napolitano38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7233…6520backed Alexandre Muller62c52.59$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0410951.4%56 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Alexandre Muller59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8571857.7%414 W · 304 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Stefano Napolitano38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Stefano Napolitano40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x237f…e76ebacked Alexandre Muller62c49.85$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9930055%165 W · 135 L+0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Stefano Napolitano38c47.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.183,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Stefano Napolitano37c40.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0423530.2%71 W · 164 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c55…3408backed Alexandre Muller63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.89162.6%57 W · 34 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Stefano Napolitano39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,02554%554 W · 471 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Stefano Napolitano38c35.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.311,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Stefano Napolitano38c33.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9160341.1%248 W · 355 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae75…9fd7backed Alexandre Muller62c32.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.066248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f00…5396backed Alexandre Muller63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.752653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfb…7665backed Alexandre Muller63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.753164.5%20 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Stefano Napolitano39c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.311,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Alexandre Muller62c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6418666.7%124 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Alexandre Muller78c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9374547.4%353 W · 392 L-28.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe668…7a6bbacked Stefano Napolitano40c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44560%27 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddfb…6857backed Stefano Napolitano40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf8…5b60backed Alexandre Muller61c24.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5911559.1%68 W · 47 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…b70dbacked Alexandre Muller63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.812548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd63…a39abacked Alexandre Muller63c20.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6319637.2%73 W · 123 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff7b…b79fbacked Alexandre Muller62c19.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.489867.3%66 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03dd…49c8backed Alexandre Muller63c16.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2346851.5%241 W · 227 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.