NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaad32ce487aa21dac96600ccfd3d732b85cc4d1343d094b2335c18aea9a5909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 37c | 798.56$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed Pistons | 63c | 776.78$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.9 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Pacers | 38c | 749.98$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pistons | 63c | 548.85$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.19 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Pacers | 37c | 533.25$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.82 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Pacers | 7c | 412$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb628…fd2bbacked Pistons | 62c | 336.67$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.55 | 118 | 73.7%87 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…b5efbacked Pistons | 63c | 246.85$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…f37cbacked Pistons | 59c | 198.8$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 271 | 62.4%169 W · 102 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Pacers | 29c | 198.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…6d3fbacked Pistons | 71c | 195.11$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Pacers | 10c | 183$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Pacers | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Pistons | 59c | 106.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Pacers | 41c | 101.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pacers | 40c | 100.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pacers | 31c | 95.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacers | 32c | 91.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Pistons | 60c | 81.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…dd56backed Pistons | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Pistons | 62c | 78.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb4…4a2bbacked Pistons | 59c | 53.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Pistons | 62c | 49.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Pistons | 59c | 40.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 443 | 45.1%200 W · 243 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Pacers | 40c | 39.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…9798backed Pistons | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed Pistons | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 176 | 60.8%107 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Pistons | 60c | 27.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 226 | 46.9%106 W · 120 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…7b3ebacked Pistons | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. PacersPistons won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 248.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 252.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 257.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pistons (-13.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pistons (-15.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pistons (-18.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pistons (-21.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pistons (-23.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.