Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac2618473660631f42f3e11bf4d32bcb8ceeb2832a9a8e6338170ad4a228192
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,940$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.49 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 516.32$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.63 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 401.44$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.78 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 361.32$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.83 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 282.69$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 280.75$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 53c | 277.06$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 203.4$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 193$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 175.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 56c | 168.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 151.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 53c | 145$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 46c | 134$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 117.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 47c | 113.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 54c | 88.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 88.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 53c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 87.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 29c | 86.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 79.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 73c | 72.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 76c | 66.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…581bbacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 65.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 80c | 64.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 58.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 52.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…e027backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 44c | 46.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…e484backed Yes | 55c | 44.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 39c | 42.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 61c | 37.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 36.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 35.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 47c | 34.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 71c | 32.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…6bb8backed No | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…5a54backed No | 44c | 23.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked Yes | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 22.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…0a35backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 60c | 17.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.