Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2db885725928e910252aa8cbe5911ed34b09fdeda9ad3f3d98c578226fb1a02b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 35c | 1,906$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.77 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes | 28c | 1,382$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.98 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 42c | 635.02$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.9 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 595.61$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 566.22$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 423.26$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 314.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 291.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 208.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 205.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 203.48$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 193$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 12c | 181$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 27c | 163.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 159.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 154.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 148.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 31c | 127.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 111.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 29c | 106.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 102.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 40c | 101.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 29c | 100.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 74c | 94.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 27c | 92.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 91.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 23c | 87.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 80.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 25c | 77.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed Yes | 40c | 68.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 65.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 32c | 61.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 25c | 56.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 56.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 22c | 54.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 53.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 29c | 47.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 46.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 38c | 46.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 29c | 44.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked No | 74c | 42.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 25c | 41.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 38.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 69c | 33.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 33.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 45c | 29.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 27.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 25.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 67c | 25.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 60c | 20.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 70c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 15.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 67c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 15.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed No | 71c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…2b28backed No | 79c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 91°F or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.