Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb5a2381b14397563da057448715ff147844417d11b31227474f8b513580ac61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 1,608$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.67 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 23c | 343.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 26c | 330.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 287.7$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 74c | 271.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 226.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 23c | 202.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed No | 77c | 193.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 24c | 193.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 18c | 191.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 792 | 40.9%324 W · 468 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 168.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 151.88$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1,710 | 60.8%1,039 W · 671 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 411 | 37.7%155 W · 256 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 8c | 148.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 24c | 143.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed Yes | 16c | 131.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 122.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 118.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 108.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 79c | 107$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 106.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 21c | 102.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…9438backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 11c | 96.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 22c | 89.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 15c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 17c | 71.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…d76ebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 21c | 64.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 25c | 64.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 61.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 59.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 55.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 55.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 55.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 632 | 43.2%273 W · 359 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 27c | 53.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 528 | 33.3%176 W · 352 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 76c | 52.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 30c | 50.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 408 | 45.8%187 W · 221 L | +30.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 48.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 48.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 47.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 45.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,597 | 78.6%1,255 W · 342 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 33c | 39.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 77c | 37.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 79c | 36.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 32.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 23.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1,912 | 55.5%1,062 W · 850 L | +6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 22.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 22.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 17.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…266cbacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 73c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 15.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.