Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb81fbba179a3fcd1ee7ff49a4921edcb6929640d71f6b3a588a09849de303de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 861.3$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 48c | 505.12$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.27 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 495.24$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 5c | 396.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 32c | 340.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.52 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 28c | 326.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.68 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 316.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 286.56$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 72c | 282.74$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 223.37$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 34c | 222.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.77 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 74c | 197.8$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 195$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 191.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.78 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 175.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 156.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 147.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 70c | 144.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 104.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 35c | 97.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 74c | 81.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 24c | 77.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 76.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 18c | 76.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…53fabacked Yes | 26c | 75.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 35c | 73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 63.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 64c | 61.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed No | 75c | 60.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 20c | 57.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 25c | 56.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 55.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 26c | 55.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 72c | 55.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 36c | 54.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 52.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 50.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 26c | 46.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 73c | 41.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 40.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 33c | 38.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 43c | 37.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 34.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 32.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 32.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 74c | 31.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 73c | 29.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 29.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 27.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 22.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 22.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 21.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 16.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.