Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea58fa0c724ec08c73ea405d3cf3d61ea1a7230b42b87ffdd8a21622c3421952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,083$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.29 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 316.1$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 276$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 195$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 10c | 193.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 193.3$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 53c | 175.81$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 54c | 166.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 162.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 46c | 159.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 148.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 34c | 103.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 44c | 97.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 87.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 85.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 80.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 52c | 78.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 67.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 56.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 50c | 50.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 46c | 49.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8579…ed5dbacked Yes | 46c | 46.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 53c | 46.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e2…db13backed No | 57c | 44.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 43.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 48c | 41.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 40.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 40.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 53c | 38.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 34.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 59c | 31.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc899…961abacked Yes | 37c | 30.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 47c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 30.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 30.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked No | 55c | 27.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea1…1e30backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 45c | 26.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…c442backed No | 55c | 25.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 25.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ce…506cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 46c | 24.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 46c | 24.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 45c | 24.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 50c | 22.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.