Movies · resolved market
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb93172aa029ba156d3730d81340fcd96c1d8deb1c06824f5de1dd095777c1a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa28…e599backed No | 18c | 3,834$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 11c | 977.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 15c | 911.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 21c | 831$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.3 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 15c | 747$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 21c | 500.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 79c | 486.75$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 18c | 410.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…82b3backed No | 18c | 315$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 17c | 249.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 245.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 19c | 205.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ede…4f0abacked No | 19c | 205.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 15c | 198.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 193.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked No | 16c | 173.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed No | 23c | 146.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 18c | 92.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ded…53c2backed No | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3a…8336backed Yes | 78c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…ee93backed Yes | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "Conclave" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Wicked" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.