NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbc8142a0d7aca6d9498bdd4513261ec4664d53b2f3250ec61b69b50a583eb2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a57…2afabacked Over | 52c | 76,232$39,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,873.98 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 51,368$24,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,771.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Under | 51c | 16,055$8,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,866.79 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 9,057$4,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720.74 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 50c | 4,920$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 50c | 2,940$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.08 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 2,227$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.61 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 48c | 1,899$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.64 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 1,664$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.1 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 47c | 1,050$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.5 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 261 | 49.4%129 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Under | 50c | 891.37$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.69 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Over | 49c | 799.98$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.99 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Under | 46c | 700$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 422.96$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.25 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 335.76$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0439…3f80backed Over | 53c | 186.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Over | 49c | 183.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Under | 52c | 181.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 49c | 140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 382 | 42.9%164 W · 218 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 120.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 118.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 111.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bb…7d0fbacked Over | 53c | 69.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 53c | 61.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 272 | 46.7%127 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755c…c9febacked Over | 53c | 54.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Under | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 47c | 45.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 51c | 38.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ddc2backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 27.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 47c | 27.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 52c | 26.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 25.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 49c | 21.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…a982backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d7…0b48backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5this page
- Al Horford: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- De'Anthony Melton: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Pelicans won
- Warriors vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 223.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 224.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 225.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.