TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,962
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,962 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd12c…f2d4backed Over53c22,895$12,104 inLost-$12,104.121947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c8,842$4,177 inWon+$4,664.849,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under47c5,805$2,717 inWon+$3,088.124,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Under44c3,151$1,386 inWon+$1,764.3626544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x596b…c1ecbacked Under47c1,892$889 inWon+$1,002.76850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Under47c1,172$551 inWon+$621.1654747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Under46c999.99$460 inWon+$54017250%86 W · 86 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Under47c729$343 inWon+$386.372540%10 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under42c672.46$284 inWon+$388.284,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over58c618.34$359 inLost-$358.811,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over57c537.76$307 inLost-$306.968,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under48c400$190 inWon+$2103,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over56c357$200 inLost-$199.921,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under47c297.87$140 inWon+$157.8762347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over56c272.69$153 inLost-$152.712,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c252$118 inWon+$133.565,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Over52c230.77$120 inLost-$12026048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under47c212.77$100 inWon+$112.771,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under47c200.48$95 inWon+$105.313,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under46c142.52$66 inWon+$76.6545646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under47c117$55 inWon+$62.0162541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under47c95.74$45 inWon+$50.7487453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over57c87.71$50 inLost-$49.992,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c78.51$38 inWon+$40.832,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under43c76.59$33 inWon+$43.6656547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f1d…32fabacked Over57c51.36$29 inLost-$29.28944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Over54c49$26 inLost-$26.461,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under45c42.72$19 inWon+$23.52,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbb…727fbacked Under42c33.15$14 inWon+$19.2314448.6%70 W · 74 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under47c31.58$15 inWon+$16.741,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under43c29.27$13 inWon+$16.631,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…5d05backed Under45c23.81$11 inWon+$13.11241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over54c22.33$12 inLost-$12.155,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Under53c21.73$12 inWon+$10.2145653.5%244 W · 212 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeea…0c83backed Under50c20$10 inWon+$101553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.