NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16b33022e3d415dec12180e96af76947c6cf4e6a4cd64f8da5e28f0635a7b60d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 2,562$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Over | 60c | 2,370$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.77 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 901.17$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Over | 62c | 802.4$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.41 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 37c | 520.59$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.92 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 467.58$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.2 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 14c | 368.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 40c | 325.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.44 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…6165backed Over | 63c | 253.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 40c | 199.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 185.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.92 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 41c | 158.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 125.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10e…18dfbacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Over | 63c | 95.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Over | 54c | 74.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2a…eac5backed Over | 49c | 69.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x220e…3b20backed Over | 54c | 65.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…8581backed Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…8498backed Under | 40c | 46.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 47c | 46.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 27c | 41.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Under | 41c | 41.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 40c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 323 | 52.6%170 W · 153 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 29.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea52…b082backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 47c | 26.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 62c | 26.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e7…a322backed Over | 59c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 223.5this page
- Al Horford: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- De'Anthony Melton: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Pelicans won
- Warriors vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 224.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 225.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.