Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe583561db0e3831cd59dd208eb644b9f50814829a1a7414ceb57ce1190eb61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 7,907$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.69 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 74c | 1,500$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.84 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Under | 45c | 999.99$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.63 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 74c | 951.83$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.83 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 26c | 871.91$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.78 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 463.92$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.93 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 434.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 53c | 416.35$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 24c | 399.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…456fbacked Over | 50c | 396.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…9e2bbacked Under | 33c | 356.73$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 14c | 356.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb5…4ba6backed Over | 55c | 294.55$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 71c | 283.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 50c | 271$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Under | 4c | 259$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 55c | 213.44$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 15c | 169$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f2…fe1bbacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 41c | 147.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Under | 23c | 131.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Under | 10c | 119$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 20c | 118$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Over | 78c | 107$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 56c | 90.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 41c | 87.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 55c | 75.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…6659backed Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Over | 68c | 70.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd272…2856backed Over | 72c | 44.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 53c | 37.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Over | 37c | 32.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae3…8753backed Over | 72c | 24.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 68c | 23.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-2.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.