Token Launches · resolved market
Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe5d12e30234c9d16379748558a1dbc04df32947b4400efe1769e3aabc1d5aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 59c | 5,760$3,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.55 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed No | 22c | 2,365$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,994$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 34c | 1,850$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.63 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf9…c81bbacked No | 34c | 1,486$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed No | 54c | 945.99$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.85 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 13c | 810.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0474…9ffabacked Yes | 49c | 805.49$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…9d5dbacked No | 24c | 715.45$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.21 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 25c | 700.21$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.02 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 54c | 689.92$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.63 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…54b0backed No | 46c | 638.27$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 45c | 556.85$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.41 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2611…bc17backed No | 37c | 500$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked No | 4c | 444$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed No | 64c | 405.33$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.35 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed No | 41c | 400$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 387.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…239fbacked No | 48c | 364.21$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 11c | 302.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…4635backed Yes | 46c | 209.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d60dbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…c1a4backed Yes | 75c | 183.62$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…02ddbacked Yes | 64c | 128.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 49c | 118.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 117.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 26c | 115.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…46dcbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…b4e5backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x883b…587ebacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e8…3b19backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…fa95backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed No | 37c | 99.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 97.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 42c | 93.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked No | 53c | 81.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 50c | 80.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871f…5885backed No | 40c | 63.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c5…5b6abacked No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 59.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes | 36c | 55.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…6f5fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…0c73backed No | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…ef80backed No | 37c | 50.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…8858backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +207.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…5ff1backed No | 48c | 41.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…16b4backed No | 55c | 41.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…46f6backed No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 45c | 30.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 61c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Perle Labs FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Perle Labs FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Perle Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Perle Labs FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.