Token Launches · resolved market
Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f9cf32eb1ecbe59db7518ebfb7b571d415341dc411d7348641d42fc2ea3d9e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x716d…4206backed No | 71c | 5,970$4,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 13c | 5,821$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.24 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 57c | 5,210$2,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,223.1 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 35c | 2,290$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.41 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 25c | 2,244$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…5f35backed No | 55c | 2,200$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…fce2backed Yes | 46c | 2,200$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked No | 63c | 1,560$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.94 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed No | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.84 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…f389backed Yes | 14c | 912.18$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 25c | 899.99$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65dd…4664backed Yes | 73c | 875.34$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.27 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…9d5dbacked Yes | 16c | 871.52$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Yes | 39c | 642.73$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.07 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed Yes | 54c | 590.09$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.39 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 7c | 584.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 39c | 561.55$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.36 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed No | 73c | 514.57$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.41 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed No | 21c | 469$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +400.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 455.13$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.54 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 65c | 443.17$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 24c | 442.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed No | 64c | 434.91$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.73 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 63c | 382.81$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.73 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 51c | 319.56$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.12 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf297…2c03backed No | 47c | 318.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 61c | 304.94$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 23c | 273.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.05 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 25c | 273$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 19c | 239.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2611…bc17backed Yes | 35c | 235.54$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 225.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 223.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 221.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 26c | 193.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 180.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 28c | 179.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 52c | 170.39$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…ed8bbacked Yes | 22c | 166.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 26c | 160.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…deb7backed Yes | 18c | 159.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 42c | 144$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…2c15backed No | 73c | 139.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…8858backed Yes | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +207.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 18c | 120$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 10c | 118.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 102.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…54fbbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f5d6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…ba27backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 97.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 43c | 93.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…0bdbbacked Yes | 25c | 90.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…46f6backed Yes | 38c | 84.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7f…3e85backed Yes | 36c | 82.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Yes | 42c | 71.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…3271backed Yes | 55c | 67.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 45c | 66.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…6757backed Yes | 45c | 64.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 38c | 58.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…d477backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23c7…3b49backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 28c | 48.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 34c | 40.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 37.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 52c | 36.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 61c | 36.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…e5aabacked No | 64c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…287cbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…fedabacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 22.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…d342backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…737bbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 61c | 16.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Perle Labs FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Perle Labs FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Perle Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Perle Labs FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.