World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc4187da62bdbf01ab5d3c4ef421d886c8fc05ec2d2fc65a407420412b061f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 2,212$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.48 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…5469backed Yes | 47c | 320.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 258.26$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.49 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 52c | 250.49$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 204.91$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 52c | 163$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 45c | 160.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 154$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 56c | 147.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 147.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 52c | 123.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 116.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 111.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 55c | 109$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 104.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 102.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 46c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 90.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 90.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 49c | 88.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 47c | 85.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 50c | 83.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 82.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 82.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 70.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 54c | 64.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 63.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 59.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 58.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 56.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 53c | 56.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 51.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 50.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 38.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 32.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 31.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 31.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 30.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 47c | 30.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 29.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…ab41backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 54c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 53c | 25.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 23.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 22.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 51c | 20.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 54c | 18.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.