Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc62201376f0668500d0b2a646d33faa9b49b88897cd246d44991bba97ca55cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 1c | 1,006$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 79c | 365.93$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 36c | 311.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.41 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 297.04$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 76c | 252.76$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 232.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 219.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 197.02$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 12c | 167.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 159.97$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 158.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 154.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 39c | 147.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 76c | 142.7$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 121.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 120.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 120.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 13c | 104.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 99.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 95.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 56c | 94.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 92.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 39c | 83.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 21c | 79.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 34c | 76.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 19c | 75.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 73.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 63c | 71.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 71.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 67.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 43c | 64.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 63.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 62.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 60.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 42c | 58.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 33c | 57.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 26c | 57.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 21c | 53.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 51.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 36c | 50.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 63c | 47.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 44.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 41.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 41.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 62c | 39.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 33.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 77c | 32.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 58c | 31.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 62c | 30.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 42c | 28.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 27.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 23.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 66c | 22.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 21.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…5b4bbacked No | 65c | 17.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 79c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.