Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc97dad7b8742c95264433afd3d2fecc39b24da59ff2204b8872253900266e04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,908 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 66c | 16,311$10,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,545.72 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 10,652$3,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,012.89 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 34c | 4,330$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.9 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 35c | 1,243$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 20c | 952.64$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 12c | 876.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 32c | 781.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 34c | 750$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 612.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Under | 72c | 293.21$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 65c | 255.04$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 34c | 242.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 63c | 237$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 36c | 219.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 34c | 205.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 68c | 195.49$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 32c | 170$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaa…e7efbacked Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 36c | 139.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 31c | 125.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 34c | 118.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…f1c4backed Over | 33c | 91.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 64c | 87.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…b945backed Over | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…8ae5backed Over | 34c | 69.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Under | 66c | 52.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 48.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 34c | 47.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Over | 34c | 45.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5985…a8cabacked Over | 34c | 44.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 34c | 44.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 65c | 41.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 35c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Over | 34c | 29.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 68c | 24.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…d6a5backed Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.