CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcd47d4b9c648c7c7377d1ad02db9c0b11bfd31421e75636cc37f68afbd9ae51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Natus Vincere, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,212 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 1,029$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Natus Vincere | 15c | 743.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…ed3dbacked Natus Vincere | 16c | 516.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Natus Vincere | 23c | 502.52$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 345 | 42.3%146 W · 199 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Natus Vincere | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…bbcebacked Natus Vincere | 16c | 348.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Natus Vincere | 23c | 205.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Natus Vincere | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Natus Vincere | 16c | 190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 452 | 44.5%201 W · 251 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 187.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…3c94backed Natus Vincere | 16c | 175$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Natus Vincere | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 15c | 135.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Natus Vincere | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 482 | 42.1%203 W · 279 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Aurora Gaming | 78c | 108.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 256 | 34.4%88 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Aurora Gaming | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767f…533dbacked Natus Vincere | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4373…7c78backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora Gaming | 76c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6234…15c9backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+2.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 3 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 4 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.