CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39387a7de66255cfb64e2e51956bdc5148d18c8cff5cd96422f991b889ec5c93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,372 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Under | 61c | 1,117$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…e3d3backed Over | 36c | 553.37$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.73 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 64c | 505.08$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.83 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 32c | 442.59$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.63 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 30c | 245$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 244.79$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…34b2backed Over | 42c | 235.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 70c | 214.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Over | 41c | 213.07$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Under | 50c | 156.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 29c | 147.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 46c | 129$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 347 | 42.9%149 W · 198 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 49c | 109$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Under | 79c | 81.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 71c | 80.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Over | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Over | 35c | 61.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 47c | 58.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 256 | 34.4%88 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed Under | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 52c | 37.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…03b1backed Over | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 64c | 33.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539b…d322backed Over | 34c | 30.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Over | 34c | 29.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Under | 60c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…f6debacked Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 157 | 70.1%110 W · 47 L | +13.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Over | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4373…7c78backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 3 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 4 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+2.5)Aurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.