CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fe25372f9e54c88d5babc90befdc3a2d490cac73f3a88bc3dd6f76a40452a6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,535 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 3,208$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,957 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…b6ffbacked Aurora Gaming | 61c | 3,200$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 1,227$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.67 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Aurora Gaming | 16c | 648.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 256 | 34.4%88 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 600$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Aurora Gaming | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 197.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Aurora Gaming | 59c | 119.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39e2…040dbacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 85.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…949cbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 77.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 65.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…a364backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…ea73backed Aurora Gaming | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 347 | 42.9%149 W · 198 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…cebfbacked Aurora Gaming | 55c | 36.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | -17.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…03b1backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c4…2c42backed Aurora Gaming | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Aurora Gaming | 48c | 29.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Aurora Gaming | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…e271backed Aurora Gaming | 59c | 21.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 379 | 46.4%176 W · 203 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4373…7c78backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 3 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 4 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+2.5)Aurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.