Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Green Bay Phoenix (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd3ae2d69670211520b4f09a0262ad02d1c4fbab5f6774e088fa4968046f91e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Green Bay Phoenixof Green Bay Phoenix, Cleveland State Vikings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $781,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,164,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $781,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af1…0f7bbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 387,839$194,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192,902.03 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 77,355$38,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,447.61 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 18,888$9,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,444 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 17,500$8,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,750 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cleveland State Vikings | 49c | 11,523$5,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,662.85 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 11,111$5,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,555.5 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 5,525$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cleveland State Vikings | 49c | 5,010$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,454.9 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cleveland State Vikings | 49c | 4,490$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.17 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Cleveland State Vikings | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 560$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Cleveland State Vikings | 52c | 558$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.74 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…d438backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 303.38$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.69 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 260$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Cleveland State Vikings | 51c | 242.28$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 92.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Cleveland State Vikings | 51c | 87.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Green Bay Phoenix | 46c | 68.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a2…12b2backed Green Bay Phoenix | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Cleveland State Vikings | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…482cbacked Cleveland State Vikings | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Cleveland State Vikings | 51c | 35.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Cleveland State Vikings | 53c | 33.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Cleveland State Vikings | 52c | 29.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Cleveland State Vikings | 51c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Cleveland State Vikings | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Cleveland State Vikings | 53c | 28.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…08b2backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba2…8f7cbacked Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…6354backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Cleveland State Vikings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Green Bay Phoenix (-3.5)this page
- Green Bay Phoenix vs. Cleveland State VikingsGreen Bay Phoenix won
- Green Bay Phoenix vs. Cleveland State Vikings: O/U 149.5Over won
- Spread: Green Bay Phoenix (-4.5)Green Bay Phoenix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.