Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd691c7d0bda567334b64aa29bdff51fc8fece38bfa268c9efd9e1ccf4265eb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Under | 64c | 511.53$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.08 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…77cfbacked Over | 26c | 400$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 28c | 399.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.9 | 746 | 37.9%283 W · 463 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Under | 71c | 353.63$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.07 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 74c | 269.31$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 72c | 239.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.79 | 197 | 58.9%116 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2469…4812backed Under | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…8a1dbacked Over | 53c | 166.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +122%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 29c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…80fdbacked Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Under | 47c | 89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 312 | 44.6%139 W · 173 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 602 | 43.4%261 W · 341 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Over | 53c | 63.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Under | 47c | 63.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 573 | 49.4%283 W · 290 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed Over | 48c | 57.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 464 | 52.4%243 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed Under | 68c | 48.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 136 | 32.4%44 W · 92 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 50c | 43.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 2,679 | 35.7%957 W · 1,722 L | -153.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 46c | 40.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,971 | 30.5%601 W · 1,370 L | -170.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…eabbbacked Under | 37c | 37.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 55c | 35.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 402 | 31.3%126 W · 276 L | -28.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Over | 47c | 27.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 238 | 31.5%75 W · 163 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…0121backed Over | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 660 | 58.8%388 W · 272 L | -36.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 44c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 19.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 59c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 539 | 55.1%297 W · 242 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Under | 73c | 17.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 334 | 53.9%180 W · 154 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 73c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 382 | 57.9%221 W · 161 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5)Ninjas in Pyjamas won
- Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)EDward Gaming won
- Game Handicap: NIP (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5)EDward Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-InEDward Gaming won
- LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 WinnerEDward Gaming won
- LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 WinnerNinjas in Pyjamas won
- LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 WinnerEDward Gaming won
- LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 WinnerNinjas in Pyjamas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.