Lol · resolved market
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd69bd1806ba45ff55d904ad2369cd905c95ef1a87a6fca2fc9e8cc75a373809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Supernovaof Supernova, Winthrop University
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Supernova | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 918 | 54%496 W · 422 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Winthrop University | 25c | 8,725$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.22 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Winthrop University | 4c | 2,398$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…285dbacked Winthrop University | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Supernova | 67c | 1,787$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.91 | 462 | 58.4%270 W · 192 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Winthrop University | 30c | 1,254$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.12 | 869 | 43.2%375 W · 494 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed Winthrop University | 25c | 1,236$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.98 | 136 | 32.4%44 W · 92 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffc…cfabbacked Winthrop University | 37c | 812.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 237 | 40.5%96 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Supernova | 70c | 788.05$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.09 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…fa05backed Supernova | 71c | 701.81$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.81 | 1,218 | 58.1%708 W · 510 L | +44.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…6c11backed Supernova | 52c | 647.99$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.6 | 367 | 49.9%183 W · 184 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Supernova | 76c | 611.6$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.35 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Supernova | 69c | 600$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 1,295 | 45.1%584 W · 711 L | +49.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb12…6a81backed Winthrop University | 53c | 541.32$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Supernova | 71c | 469.3$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 962 | 50.1%482 W · 480 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed Winthrop University | 33c | 422.49$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.42 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Winthrop University | 21c | 400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,447 | 13.3%192 W · 1,255 L | -109.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…930fbacked Winthrop University | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1,216 | 44.4%540 W · 676 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Winthrop University | 41c | 392.09$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.43 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd755…d794backed Supernova | 65c | 360$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…bfd1backed Supernova | 68c | 346.06$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.05 | 379 | 57.5%218 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Winthrop University | 28c | 346$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Supernova | 72c | 279.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 1,663 | 59.5%990 W · 673 L | +98.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Supernova | 61c | 235$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 419 | 45.1%189 W · 230 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…0118backed Supernova | 54c | 230.37$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Winthrop University | 30c | 224.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 753 | 42.5%320 W · 433 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Winthrop University | 31c | 223.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 476 | 30.7%146 W · 330 L | -13.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…ca23backed Supernova | 49c | 219.74$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Winthrop University | 34c | 215.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…bbc3backed Winthrop University | 29c | 211.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Supernova | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 722 | 34.1%246 W · 476 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Winthrop University | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Supernova | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 436 | 42.4%185 W · 251 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Winthrop University | 35c | 191.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Winthrop University | 30c | 165.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 627 | 39.9%250 W · 377 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Supernova | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 384 | 39.8%153 W · 231 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Winthrop University | 46c | 139.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 744 | 62.2%463 W · 281 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Supernova | 56c | 127.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466b…7fd3backed Supernova | 68c | 122.72$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Winthrop University | 37c | 120.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 1,899 | 37.1%705 W · 1,194 L | -113.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Supernova | 69c | 118.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Winthrop University | 37c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Winthrop University | 42c | 101.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 1,922 | 42.2%811 W · 1,111 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Winthrop University | 35c | 100.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Supernova | 53c | 75.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 538 | 29.4%158 W · 380 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Supernova | 60c | 74.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 625 | 58.7%367 W · 258 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Supernova | 48c | 70.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 249 | 59.8%149 W · 100 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…43d6backed Supernova | 71c | 65.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae8…e1b3backed Supernova | 61c | 65.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Supernova | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 507 | 45%228 W · 279 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aba…debfbacked Winthrop University | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…b387backed Winthrop University | 33c | 49.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 647 | 49.5%320 W · 327 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Winthrop University | 39c | 49.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 413 | 43.8%181 W · 232 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…bc01backed Supernova | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked Supernova | 42c | 48.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 1,443 | 43.4%626 W · 817 L | +105.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked Winthrop University | 63c | 46.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 251 | 65.7%165 W · 86 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Supernova | 63c | 46.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,241 | 52.7%654 W · 587 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…91b1backed Supernova | 55c | 42.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1,247 | 52.8%659 W · 588 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…a9f1backed Winthrop University | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3073…3413backed Supernova | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 189 | 60.3%114 W · 75 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…baf2backed Supernova | 58c | 34.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…ec5bbacked Winthrop University | 69c | 32.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 414 | 53.4%221 W · 193 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc666…8d00backed Winthrop University | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 422 | 51.7%218 W · 204 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Supernova | 53c | 28.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5624…b5c4backed Supernova | 70c | 24.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challengers League PlayoffsWinthrop University won
- LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 2 WinnerWinthrop University won
- LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 3 WinnerWinthrop University won
- LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 4 WinnerSupernova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.