Fifa International · resolved market
Senegal to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdaa624d2d9e3855ed9e32c54fba3a05a9781cc6cbeb4c38c174f3ba29924ed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 67c | 14,127$9,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,636.95 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…59ddbacked No | 33c | 9,959$3,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,286.55 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed No | 34c | 6,875$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,337.5 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Yes | 70c | 999$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.59 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 28c | 823.95$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.95 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 33c | 666.83$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 34c | 609$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.06 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 76c | 587.46$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 31c | 539$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.09 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Yes | 66c | 460$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 31c | 403$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.93 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 68c | 343.09$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.36 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked No | 34c | 293.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed No | 32c | 285.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 70c | 285$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a2…e0b6backed No | 34c | 245.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 31c | 215.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed No | 25c | 215.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 345 | 33.6%116 W · 229 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 33c | 200.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 22c | 107$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 332 | 37.3%124 W · 208 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623b…b1f8backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 66c | 73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cf…4228backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 164 | 48.2%79 W · 85 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…0cabbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 238 | 55.5%132 W · 106 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 33c | 34.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senegal to win the second half?this page
- Iraq to win the second half?No won
- Senegal vs. Iraq: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.