NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Capitals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdfd2c6012ea621b64c17b31e80f3b97c8a4d3a137fc4aa0f344427bb9c1ea48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Lightning, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $305,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $306,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 916 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Lightning | 46c | 33,280$15,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,431.6 | 362 | 42%152 W · 210 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Lightning | 49c | 21,552$10,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,560.71 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Capitals | 49c | 15,000$7,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,600 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…2f2dbacked Capitals | 51c | 11,294$5,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,534.12 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Capitals | 51c | 11,083$5,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,434.41 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Capitals | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Capitals | 54c | 8,866$4,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,067.16 | 167 | 43.1%72 W · 95 L | -12.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Capitals | 48c | 8,626$4,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,489.55 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Lightning | 50c | 8,368$4,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,167.76 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Capitals | 50c | 8,090$4,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,024.14 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Lightning | 51c | 6,452$3,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,290.41 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Capitals | 52c | 5,123$2,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.55 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Capitals | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Lightning | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.99 | 254 | 46.5%118 W · 136 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning | 46c | 5,000$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.99 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Capitals | 50c | 4,392$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,196 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Capitals | 50c | 4,334$2,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,157.95 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…dc00backed Lightning | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…6b5abacked Capitals | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Capitals | 48c | 2,828$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.65 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Capitals | 53c | 2,784$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.27 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Capitals | 51c | 2,746$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.14 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Lightning | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Capitals | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Capitals | 49c | 2,399$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.65 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Capitals | 52c | 2,347$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.55 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Lightning | 50c | 2,300$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Capitals | 55c | 2,237$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.91 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Capitals | 54c | 2,115$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.29 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21cb…d3b1backed Lightning | 50c | 2,085$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Capitals | 52c | 2,076$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.2 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…cd11backed Capitals | 51c | 2,072$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Lightning | 50c | 2,014$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60c…72f6backed Capitals | 51c | 2,010$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc8…dc52backed Lightning | 50c | 1,995$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lightning | 50c | 1,972$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.02 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Capitals | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.89 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Capitals | 54c | 1,953$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.52 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Capitals | 51c | 1,942$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.66 | 317 | 53.9%171 W · 146 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Capitals | 51c | 1,831$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.02 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…5fc8backed Capitals | 54c | 1,725$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4a02backed Lightning | 47c | 1,725$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning | 64c | 1,630$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.02 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Capitals | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Lightning | 50c | 1,513$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.53 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Lightning | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Lightning | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…9cc3backed Capitals | 51c | 1,500$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…9110backed Lightning | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Lightning | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +7.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 44c | 1,216$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.2 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…794cbacked Capitals | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…e1e2backed Lightning | 49c | 1,199$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.51 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Lightning | 50c | 1,116$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d9…f53abacked Lightning | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…48cfbacked Capitals | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Capitals | 51c | 1,055$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.94 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Capitals | 37c | 1,050$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.97 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Capitals | 51c | 1,030$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.7 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Capitals | 50c | 1,000$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.02 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Capitals | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 217 | 50.2%109 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…ed36backed Lightning | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…64b7backed Lightning | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75c9…4cecbacked Capitals | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Lightning | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Capitals | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Lightning | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2233…89acbacked Capitals | 52c | 988$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…871fbacked Capitals | 52c | 980.77$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecf…0f05backed Capitals | 54c | 896.3$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Lightning | 47c | 852.13$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Capitals | 54c | 823.99$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.56 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…15d4backed Lightning | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Capitals | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…6327backed Capitals | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Lightning | 48c | 762.56$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.54 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -11.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Capitals | 52c | 655$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.05 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Lightning | 51c | 650$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.5 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Lightning | 56c | 648.36$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.45 | 584 | 67.5%394 W · 190 L | +93.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…a2d7backed Lightning | 50c | 644.5$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669c…6c54backed Capitals | 51c | 644.43$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.77 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Lightning | 47c | 622.04$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Capitals | 39c | 600$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.71 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa585…a793backed Lightning | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Capitals | 53c | 600$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…940bbacked Capitals | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…fb27backed Capitals | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Capitals | 52c | 600$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…3c15backed Lightning | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…2e59backed Capitals | 51c | 599.98$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Lightning | 62c | 514.89$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.28 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Lightning | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Lightning | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 510 | 44.5%227 W · 283 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Capitals | 53c | 444$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Lightning | 69c | 435.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.26 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Lightning | 67c | 425$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.63 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Capitals | 43c | 421.17$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.09 | 1,354 | 52.6%712 W · 642 L | +46.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Lightning | 50c | 410$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Capitalsthis page
- Lightning vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.