Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe513978f94aed3178df14cf5a81709a7aa96235d14cf07288e36145d0929f81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a7…68f6backed Yes | 0c | 5,933$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 75c | 401.53$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 33c | 374.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.84 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 70c | 354.6$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.66 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 309.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 279.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 258.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 215.86$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 37c | 207.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 37c | 205$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 204.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 199.29$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 178.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 173.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 23c | 145.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 143$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 77c | 130.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 39c | 119.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 34c | 119.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 38c | 111.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 49c | 111.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 39c | 110.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 109.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 109$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 100.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 64c | 93.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 61c | 89.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 70c | 87.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 74c | 82.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 65c | 82.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 77.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 26c | 75.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 39c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 50c | 74.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 71.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 70.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 20c | 70.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 65c | 70.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 69.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 68.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 55c | 68.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 67.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 67.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 26c | 64.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 47c | 62.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 23c | 58.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 57.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 57.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 70c | 57.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 68c | 55.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 37c | 54.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 37c | 54.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 30c | 52.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 52.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 64c | 46.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 54c | 45.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 68c | 44.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 43.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 32c | 42.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 31c | 40.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 39.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…eba4backed No | 63c | 39.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 39.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 35c | 39.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 57c | 33.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 32.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 29.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858f…b802backed No | 66c | 28.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 40c | 28.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed Yes | 72c | 28.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 64c | 27.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3312…3507backed No | 66c | 26.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…529cbacked Yes | 66c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked No | 62c | 22.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 62c | 21.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 21.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 56c | 21.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.