Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x198656eb03d9ee5fd1a4bf3a372edfdc125a35da343bcf15f89e97a8564c43e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 8c | 1,816$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.86 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 706.51$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 50c | 358.36$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.77 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 3c | 350.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 78c | 250.72$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 30c | 235.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.09 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 73c | 214.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 203.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 198.76$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 76c | 194.81$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 192.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 65c | 186.91$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 182.91$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 178.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 150$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 149.48$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 140$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 135.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 129.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 41c | 122.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 37c | 114.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 32c | 104.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 102.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 35c | 99.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 99.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…68f6backed No | 21c | 97.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 12c | 94.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 50c | 92.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 55c | 92.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 42c | 81.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 48c | 81.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 52c | 81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 51c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 52c | 76.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 71.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 52c | 70.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 67.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 67.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 45c | 67.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 50c | 64.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 50c | 64.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 37c | 62.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 57c | 62.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…e575backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 61c | 58.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 64c | 58.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 48c | 54.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 49c | 54.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 51.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…ba81backed No | 60c | 51.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 51c | 51.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 25c | 50.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 59c | 41.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 53c | 41.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 40.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 47c | 39.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 38.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 58c | 37.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 34.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 34.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 55c | 32.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 58c | 32.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 48c | 32.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…d5d8backed Yes | 42c | 31.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked Yes | 42c | 31.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 44c | 31.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 44c | 29.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 37c | 28.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 52c | 27.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e1…f883backed Yes | 46c | 26.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 50c | 26.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed No | 62c | 24.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 24.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 21.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf85…f199backed No | 65c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.