TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: European Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Inner Circle Esportsof fnatic, Inner Circle Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,950 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda3a…381fbacked Inner Circle Esports42c24,453$10,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,185.9218950.8%96 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed fnatic58c17,821$10,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,257.7341649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked fnatic33c11,064$3,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,688.13,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Inner Circle Esports42c8,256$3,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.7810952.3%57 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked fnatic58c6,586$3,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,834.6160540%242 W · 363 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce7a…75d7backed Inner Circle Esports42c5,790$2,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,353.283756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed fnatic56c3,784$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,121.4756732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Inner Circle Esports41c3,652$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,141.4685358.3%497 W · 356 L+60.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked Inner Circle Esports48c3,568$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.532065%13 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked fnatic29c3,528$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.522,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked fnatic22c3,242$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.133,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed fnatic48c2,762$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.341,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed fnatic61c2,641$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed fnatic59c2,500$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.9858651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed Inner Circle Esports70c2,459$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.672055%11 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked fnatic46c2,245$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.382,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Inner Circle Esports41c2,228$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.4524233.9%82 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Inner Circle Esports73c1,990$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54232930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked fnatic58c1,800$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0448654.7%47 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked fnatic42c1,715$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.483,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed fnatic61c1,656$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.915264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked fnatic63c1,647$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.5245357.2%259 W · 194 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8541…a367backed fnatic47c1,640$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.6228344.2%125 W · 158 L+17.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed fnatic59c1,638$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.88733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked fnatic58c1,597$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.321,72346.8%807 W · 916 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Inner Circle Esports43c1,530$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.6518943.4%82 W · 107 L-0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed fnatic39c1,526$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.366836.8%25 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed fnatic25c1,518$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.916,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc740…522fbacked Inner Circle Esports64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.711770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Inner Circle Esports31c1,379$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.7811740.2%47 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Inner Circle Esports64c1,373$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.21,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked fnatic58c1,295$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.264546.7%21 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed fnatic37c1,239$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.884,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed fnatic59c1,145$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.2638037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed fnatic63c1,117$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.552456.3%295 W · 229 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed Inner Circle Esports45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.1113347.4%63 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Inner Circle Esports65c1,092$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.6946344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Inner Circle Esports41c1,082$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.2135043.1%151 W · 199 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed fnatic30c1,021$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.084,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed fnatic60c1,020$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.0285946.1%396 W · 463 L-1.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed fnatic58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5806744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed fnatic58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5806046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481d…9098backed Inner Circle Esports41c999.96$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.986259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Inner Circle Esports41c996.01$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.385,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Inner Circle Esports61c955$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.2754346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked fnatic46c927.51$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.7513540.7%55 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Inner Circle Esports40c900$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54027530.9%85 W · 190 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Inner Circle Esports64c854$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30748948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x320c…2d7abacked fnatic58c786.79$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed fnatic53c772.03$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.392,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Inner Circle Esports64c732$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.0229647.6%141 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Inner Circle Esports71c711$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.2624641.9%103 W · 143 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed fnatic77c700$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.2339245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Inner Circle Esports62c686$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.5549745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Inner Circle Esports64c681$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.493852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed fnatic60c671.52$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.99746.4%45 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked fnatic62c670.99$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.141,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed Inner Circle Esports45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6713453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed Inner Circle Esports21c653.72$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.8443933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa44…b825backed Inner Circle Esports43c651.16$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31c…626fbacked fnatic59c640.68$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d1…f540backed Inner Circle Esports42c629.98$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.3917849.4%88 W · 90 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed fnatic58c622.27$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.9276546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed fnatic34c603$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20769635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed fnatic62c600$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37246340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16fd…b4d3backed fnatic48c599.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.2829840.3%120 W · 178 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x686e…3415backed Inner Circle Esports39c589.86$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+108.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed fnatic46c547.8$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.7119935.7%71 W · 128 L-13.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d63…8b8cbacked Inner Circle Esports39c525.84$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.84875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+66.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Inner Circle Esports42c522.22$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.2253945.5%245 W · 294 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed fnatic60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010053%53 W · 47 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Inner Circle Esports58c497.47$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0852755.8%294 W · 233 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Inner Circle Esports37c485.75$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.8915732.5%51 W · 106 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Inner Circle Esports43c482.5$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.221,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Inner Circle Esports39c481.92$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.975,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked fnatic59c454$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.861,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Inner Circle Esports38c445.23$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.041,08950.9%554 W · 535 L+38.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb0…9a6cbacked Inner Circle Esports61c443.83$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.82454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1605…124fbacked Inner Circle Esports46c441.14$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.68742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…c5f6backed fnatic23c426$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed fnatic37c424.95$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2192152.6%484 W · 437 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Inner Circle Esports41c403$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.037536%27 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Inner Circle Esports41c355.66$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4616450.6%83 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed fnatic46c355.18$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.661,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Inner Circle Esports74c333.3$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.571,64946.9%774 W · 875 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed fnatic62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019351.8%100 W · 93 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Inner Circle Esports32c309.61$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.6196945.6%442 W · 527 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x494c…8923backed fnatic51c300.96$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15212351.2%63 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67e7…705bbacked fnatic32c300$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked fnatic59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17748941.9%205 W · 284 L-14.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Inner Circle Esports37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18945544.4%202 W · 253 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7810…d52fbacked fnatic61c299.51$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1831729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-41.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Inner Circle Esports67c297.34$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3423861.3%146 W · 92 L+0.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed fnatic37c280.16$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.522,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4013…406bbacked Inner Circle Esports41c279.6$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9615063.3%95 W · 55 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed Inner Circle Esports45c268.44$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.4415857.6%91 W · 67 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe766…404dbacked fnatic64c265.77$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0913947.5%66 W · 73 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc554…00adbacked fnatic41c263.46$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.91764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed fnatic56c259.3$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.214548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Inner Circle Esports61c254.22$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.0262137.7%234 W · 387 L-23.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.