Movies · resolved market
Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeb6b97a0395b01b62ffc7c774e07ea8c7dad5339de1e3b7f27b08bb54c964f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 76c | 4,291$3,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.21 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 37c | 1,300$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 24c | 976.61$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 12c | 858.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 8c | 850.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…ad7cbacked Yes | 75c | 571.8$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 16c | 526.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 11c | 488$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 10c | 465.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.93 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 420$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 76c | 197.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed No | 80c | 192.56$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.05 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 21c | 191.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 155$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…f553backed No | 30c | 150.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 33c | 113.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 75c | 88.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 29c | 67.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…5a56backed No | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 30.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…ebcabacked Yes | 67c | 30.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed Yes | 72c | 23.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1500…2105backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…90d3backed Yes | 70c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…f62cbacked Yes | 77c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…6229backed Yes | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?this page
- Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 19m?No won
- Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m?No won
- Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18m?No won
- Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.