MLB · resolved market
Blue Jays vs. Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff09af47dde25cbc4972d4e65946ffc2756a76206836bfc0d4f9ce8f9989028a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philliesof Blue Jays, Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Phillies | 61c | 39,999$24,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,599.61 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…6528backed Blue Jays | 39c | 35,441$13,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,822.1 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Blue Jays | 39c | 20,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Blue Jays | 39c | 16,138$6,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,293.82 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Phillies | 61c | 12,566$7,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900.55 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9708…925bbacked Blue Jays | 38c | 9,541$3,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,625.52 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Blue Jays | 9c | 7,605$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.06 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Phillies | 61c | 7,151$4,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,788.98 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Phillies | 79c | 5,281$4,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…9d43backed Phillies | 75c | 5,067$3,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Phillies | 61c | 3,964$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.08 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Phillies | 61c | 3,333$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.87 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Phillies | 61c | 3,333$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.87 | 327 | 54.7%179 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Phillies | 62c | 3,226$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.88 | 268 | 47.4%127 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Blue Jays | 28c | 3,000$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Phillies | 61c | 2,721$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.45 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Blue Jays | 3c | 2,569$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jays | 22c | 2,118$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.88 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Blue Jays | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Phillies | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Blue Jays | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Phillies | 61c | 1,608$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Phillies | 61c | 1,486$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.54 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Blue Jays | 2c | 1,364$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Blue Jays | 18c | 1,099$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Blue Jays | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 254 | 16.1%41 W · 213 L | -15.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59de…de22backed Phillies | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Phillies | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Blue Jays | 2c | 749.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…6f28backed Phillies | 60c | 661.2$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phillies | 61c | 590.22$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.18 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Blue Jays | 16c | 568.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Blue Jays | 3c | 544$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Blue Jays | 10c | 507.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…20d0backed Blue Jays | 3c | 484.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 404 | 3.5%14 W · 390 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Blue Jays | 36c | 440.28$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 239 | 38.5%92 W · 147 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Blue Jays | 24c | 414.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Phillies | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…59f3backed Phillies | 62c | 274.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Phillies | 61c | 266.41$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Blue Jays | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Phillies | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Blue Jays | 37c | 208.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…a44ebacked Blue Jays | 12c | 168.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Phillies | 63c | 163.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Phillies | 63c | 158.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…77c9backed Blue Jays | 9c | 146.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Blue Jays | 14c | 145.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Blue Jays | 22c | 131.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Blue Jays | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Phillies | 62c | 123$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Blue Jays | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Phillies | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Blue Jays | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 179 | 54.7%98 W · 81 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Blue Jays | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Phillies | 62c | 63.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Phillies | 61c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Phillies | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5241…f648backed Phillies | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…80ccbacked Blue Jays | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Phillies | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Phillies | 61c | 36.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 259 | 52.5%136 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Blue Jays | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Phillies | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Phillies | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…fe6abacked Blue Jays | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Blue Jays | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…c14fbacked Blue Jays | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Phillies | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2d…e348backed Phillies | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 181 | 59.1%107 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Phillies | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…6bc5backed Phillies | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.