Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff0d913b7dcd7a0db965ab9b199cbda511881eb292e7b3d3a3eaf3eb39bb0335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed MOUZ | 63c | 19,022$11,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,104.86 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 13,041$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 8,410$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.22 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Natus Vincere | 20c | 6,553$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.89 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed MOUZ | 64c | 4,000$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.49 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de5…c008backed Natus Vincere | 5c | 2,644$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 2,051$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 2,013$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.85 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.99 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 1,457$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.66 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 1,400$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.96 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 1,390$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.03 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 1,246$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 66c | 1,216$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.49 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 1,164$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.95 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 1,000$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…9f6fbacked MOUZ | 63c | 820$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed MOUZ | 75c | 776.38$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.03 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed MOUZ | 61c | 702.49$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.77 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 653.81$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…358ebacked MOUZ | 80c | 648.47$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ | 63c | 627.91$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.33 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 487.27$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked MOUZ | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Natus Vincere | 8c | 460.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…c40dbacked MOUZ | 66c | 452.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.9 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed MOUZ | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Natus Vincere | 23c | 388.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed MOUZ | 66c | 355.2$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.53 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked MOUZ | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 321.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…d9d3backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 248.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…7058backed MOUZ | 63c | 247.28$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…7c54backed Natus Vincere | 5c | 225$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…7bf0backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 224.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 209.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed MOUZ | 67c | 209.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed MOUZ | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1891…fd78backed MOUZ | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Natus Vincere | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…de1bbacked MOUZ | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed MOUZ | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed MOUZ | 64c | 154.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…3f60backed MOUZ | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…6921backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 138.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…bbdbbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 119.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Natus Vincere | 22c | 116.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 103$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed MOUZ | 66c | 101.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…fc7ebacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 100.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…57e0backed MOUZ | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b4…5692backed Natus Vincere | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…729bbacked MOUZ | 74c | 80.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 79.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked MOUZ | 80c | 75.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed MOUZ | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 71.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed MOUZ | 62c | 71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…21f0backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 59.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…8becbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 54.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680b…276abacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 49.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…18ffbacked MOUZ | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…eafebacked MOUZ | 67c | 40.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba2…26bcbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 39.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed MOUZ | 63c | 34.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked MOUZ | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbb…e5bcbacked MOUZ | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…d8dabacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked MOUZ | 64c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed MOUZ | 64c | 15.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.