Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2361262db1f9a645cf8d37394f0ffa792c78085cfe272eec4267b8d27dfa00e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $350,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $400,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $350,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 76,691$24,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,856.73 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 46,328$16,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,915.09 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 19,132$6,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,968.75 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…b2e0backed MOUZ | 64c | 15,350$9,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,535.49 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked MOUZ | 64c | 12,027$7,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,321.83 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked MOUZ | 66c | 9,735$6,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,337.34 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…5f9cbacked MOUZ | 77c | 8,136$6,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…40e3backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 6,858$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.87 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed MOUZ | 63c | 6,577$4,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,433.48 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked MOUZ | 65c | 6,424$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,243.93 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 5,971$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.04 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 5,944$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.93 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 5,131$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.78 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked MOUZ | 78c | 4,488$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.14 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…427abacked MOUZ | 63c | 4,398$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…3908backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 4,389$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked MOUZ | 65c | 4,163$2,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.06 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…a696backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 4,100$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…f0aebacked MOUZ | 64c | 3,904$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.59 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed MOUZ | 68c | 3,457$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.26 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 3,198$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.05 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d7…1c0bbacked MOUZ | 64c | 3,124$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed MOUZ | 64c | 3,122$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.97 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed MOUZ | 63c | 2,973$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.08 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked MOUZ | 65c | 2,775$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.71 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 2,770$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.01 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed MOUZ | 75c | 2,665$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.05 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ | 76c | 2,575$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.5 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed MOUZ | 64c | 2,462$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.42 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb055…c95abacked MOUZ | 63c | 2,374$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 65c | 2,293$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.35 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Natus Vincere | 23c | 2,250$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.54 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…ca50backed Natus Vincere | 1c | 2,180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Natus Vincere | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.7 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 2,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 2,000$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.97 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed MOUZ | 65c | 1,869$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.55 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…fd89backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 1,707$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked MOUZ | 63c | 1,706$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.25 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Natus Vincere | 15c | 1,600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,600$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed MOUZ | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed MOUZ | 66c | 1,522$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.59 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed MOUZ | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Natus Vincere | 20c | 1,478$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.07 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -14.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 1,391$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.97 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200b…65f7backed MOUZ | 76c | 1,321$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed MOUZ | 64c | 1,249$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.62 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 1,216$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.08 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 14c | 1,211$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.55 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…3984backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 1,196$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed MOUZ | 63c | 1,166$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.48 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed MOUZ | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 999.98$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 963.81$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked MOUZ | 64c | 961.05$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.98 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x281f…b7b5backed MOUZ | 64c | 848$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 818.03$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.49 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 803.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb0…b502backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 801$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed MOUZ | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00dd…7faabacked MOUZ | 64c | 757$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed MOUZ | 64c | 749.97$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed MOUZ | 65c | 748$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.52 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…b744backed MOUZ | 66c | 719.7$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Natus Vincere | 23c | 708.46$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.93 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…3587backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 705.88$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…3ba1backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 705.88$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 64c | 700$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…14cabacked MOUZ | 66c | 692.06$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…210fbacked MOUZ | 77c | 682.26$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.44 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked MOUZ | 64c | 625$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Natus Vincere | 16c | 615.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed MOUZ | 65c | 614.51$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.51 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed MOUZ | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 206 | 42.2%87 W · 119 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked MOUZ | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…b467backed MOUZ | 77c | 600$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028a…f485backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 595.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked MOUZ | 66c | 577.88$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.8 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed MOUZ | 65c | 565.82$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.82 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…3532backed Natus Vincere | 22c | 559.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a26…0498backed MOUZ | 63c | 552.83$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 546.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…fabbbacked MOUZ | 63c | 544$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 533$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked MOUZ | 70c | 503.54$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.01 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked MOUZ | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…874abacked MOUZ | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 499.97$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…1df6backed Natus Vincere | 7c | 494.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked MOUZ | 64c | 482.58$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5c…aad0backed MOUZ | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked MOUZ | 65c | 465$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.75 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x414c…f10bbacked MOUZ | 80c | 461.02$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ef…a23dbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 459$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed MOUZ | 65c | 458$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.38 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.