TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$155,907
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,907 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere35c10,826$3,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,783.391,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere29c9,890$2,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.3553451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked Natus Vincere48c9,487$4,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,514.2210236.3%37 W · 65 L-10.7wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29f9…e310backed MOUZ58c9,173$5,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,859.712256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec61…4a2ebacked MOUZ65c7,045$4,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,473.9410941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Natus Vincere1c5,112$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1280443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed MOUZ62c4,668$2,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.4948954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20a5…de1bbacked Natus Vincere31c4,500$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3805358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed MOUZ69c4,497$3,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.986750.7%34 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf512…40e3backed Natus Vincere31c4,238$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.153650%18 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ59c4,093$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.012,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere36c2,914$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.636442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked MOUZ54c2,762$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.0310338.8%40 W · 63 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked MOUZ69c2,703$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.8710451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Natus Vincere41c2,672$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0833036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6acc…e6eebacked Natus Vincere20c2,610$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Natus Vincere44c2,396$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9319047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed MOUZ65c2,136$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.712157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ64c2,014$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.362841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed MOUZ75c1,867$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.246460.9%39 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked Natus Vincere50c1,805$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-39.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb055…c95abacked Natus Vincere27c1,505$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.9939936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9020…9e19backed MOUZ34c1,462$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+192.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32eb…0c1bbacked Natus Vincere33c1,406$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.364257.1%24 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+37.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked MOUZ71c1,400$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40612868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe48…5895backed MOUZ65c1,375$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.2312147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02e4…f0aebacked MOUZ65c1,371$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.572070%14 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0caf…abfebacked MOUZ66c1,366$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.53650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76a2…1f3cbacked MOUZ76c1,361$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ70c1,300$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked MOUZ35c1,219$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.2712050.8%61 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed MOUZ71c1,179$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.891070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe717…ea8ebacked Natus Vincere4c1,132$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Natus Vincere36c1,116$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.816050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Natus Vincere50c1,104$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.299750.5%49 W · 48 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere35c1,010$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.7155751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed MOUZ78c980.07$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.3118075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e48…63eabacked Natus Vincere46c912.58$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb29…358ebacked MOUZ70c887.75$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.75875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere30c846.67$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25456848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed MOUZ62c806.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.4564149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.2547660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked Natus Vincere35c660.69$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.319838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb82d…c40dbacked MOUZ69c655.14$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.095949.2%29 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Natus Vincere42c600$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25214251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked MOUZ65c583.28$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.159661.5%59 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked MOUZ48c579.15$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.6721847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae8d…210fbacked MOUZ73c522.04$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.783655.6%20 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21538049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Natus Vincere35c485.63$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2710340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a9…3f60backed Natus Vincere19c450.39$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.822548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a0…d8dabacked Natus Vincere14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Natus Vincere34c371.11$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128150%0 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf051…a54cbacked Natus Vincere29c357.6$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.837149.3%35 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4635…9f6fbacked MOUZ72c355$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.55100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae8f…e8b1backed Natus Vincere38c338.66$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.995540%22 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Natus Vincere38c301.65$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9064123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked MOUZ70c284.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3213262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a26…0498backed MOUZ48c260.94$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.941681.3%13 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick59cpaid+38.6%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xb9fd…104ebacked MOUZ55c255.36$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.312552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed MOUZ69c253.71$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6511452.6%60 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91a8…2db7backed MOUZ69c250.64$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.75675%42 W · 14 L+8.3wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1891…fd78backed Natus Vincere24c250$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.81747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8deb…d8e2backed Natus Vincere34c237.31$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.951241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed MOUZ58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8414948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2214…74ebbacked Natus Vincere50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Natus Vincere29c186.21$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5412661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x693c…a7edbacked MOUZ69c180.24$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.243852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2a0…d7a5backed Natus Vincere30c180$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.281952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0186…1e2cbacked Natus Vincere35c177.76$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.551127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Natus Vincere39c174.41$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.022240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca1…8becbacked Natus Vincere29c172.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.09520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked MOUZ71c172.04$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.894967.3%33 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18ea…ae46backed MOUZ65c169.79$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.795771.9%41 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5b…dd6cbacked Natus Vincere43c163$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed MOUZ62c161.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4611551.3%59 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae8…5794backed MOUZ64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-36.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed MOUZ64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2543647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa19…6bbebacked MOUZ57c156$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…e109backed MOUZ55c154.17$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.541040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed MOUZ59c148$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2221851.8%113 W · 105 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb382…c498backed Natus Vincere46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607159.2%42 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Natus Vincere45c125.85$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6323546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b62…e23ebacked MOUZ68c120.52$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Natus Vincere30c120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3611943.7%52 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed MOUZ54c119.53$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1720361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d60…be72backed Natus Vincere28c117.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3319949.2%98 W · 101 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3099…d252backed MOUZ71c111.74$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.447570.7%53 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b6…1765backed Natus Vincere12c110$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139244.6%41 W · 51 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed MOUZ63c109.17$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4840014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd932…57e0backed MOUZ70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x544e…2d9fbacked MOUZ61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396943.5%30 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked Natus Vincere65c99.46$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0113450.7%68 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed MOUZ71c98.95$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9546451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5476…9649backed Natus Vincere53c88.68$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x916c…669abacked MOUZ60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae2…356bbacked MOUZ60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.333250%16 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e98…3e80backed Natus Vincere43c81.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352339.1%9 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.