Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x187a3cbe9888125c5a377801047e8dfa7fc266c7210636c0ba522fc209bf0682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 10,826$3,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,783.39 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 9,890$2,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.35 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 9,487$4,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,514.22 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed MOUZ | 58c | 9,173$5,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,859.7 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…4a2ebacked MOUZ | 65c | 7,045$4,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.94 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Natus Vincere | 1c | 5,112$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed MOUZ | 62c | 4,668$2,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.49 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…de1bbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 4,500$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed MOUZ | 69c | 4,497$3,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.98 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…40e3backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 4,238$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.15 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 59c | 4,093$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.01 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 2,914$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.6 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked MOUZ | 54c | 2,762$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.03 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked MOUZ | 69c | 2,703$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.87 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…f7e2backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 2,672$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6acc…e6eebacked Natus Vincere | 20c | 2,610$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 2,396$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.93 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed MOUZ | 65c | 2,136$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 64c | 2,014$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.3 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed MOUZ | 75c | 1,867$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.24 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e2…826cbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 1,805$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb055…c95abacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 1,505$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…9e19backed MOUZ | 34c | 1,462$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 1,406$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.36 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked MOUZ | 71c | 1,400$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed MOUZ | 65c | 1,375$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.23 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…f0aebacked MOUZ | 65c | 1,371$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.57 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked MOUZ | 66c | 1,366$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked MOUZ | 76c | 1,361$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ | 70c | 1,300$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked MOUZ | 35c | 1,219$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.27 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed MOUZ | 71c | 1,179$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe717…ea8ebacked Natus Vincere | 4c | 1,132$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 1,116$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.8 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 1,104$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.29 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,010$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.71 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed MOUZ | 78c | 980.07$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.31 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…63eabacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 912.58$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…358ebacked MOUZ | 70c | 887.75$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 846.67$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed MOUZ | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 660.69$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.31 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…c40dbacked MOUZ | 69c | 655.14$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.09 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked MOUZ | 65c | 583.28$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.15 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked MOUZ | 48c | 579.15$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.67 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…210fbacked MOUZ | 73c | 522.04$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.78 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 485.63$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.27 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…3f60backed Natus Vincere | 19c | 450.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…d8dabacked Natus Vincere | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 371.11$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 357.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…9f6fbacked MOUZ | 72c | 355$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 338.66$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 301.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked MOUZ | 70c | 284.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a26…0498backed MOUZ | 48c | 260.94$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.94 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…104ebacked MOUZ | 55c | 255.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.31 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed MOUZ | 69c | 253.71$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…2db7backed MOUZ | 69c | 250.64$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1891…fd78backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 250$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8e2backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 237.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed MOUZ | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…74ebbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 186.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked MOUZ | 69c | 180.24$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…1e2cbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 177.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 174.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…8becbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 172.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked MOUZ | 71c | 172.04$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…ae46backed MOUZ | 65c | 169.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…dd6cbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 163$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…7058backed MOUZ | 62c | 161.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae8…5794backed MOUZ | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed MOUZ | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…6bbebacked MOUZ | 57c | 156$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…e109backed MOUZ | 55c | 154.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed MOUZ | 59c | 148$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 125.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…e23ebacked MOUZ | 68c | 120.52$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed MOUZ | 54c | 119.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 117.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed MOUZ | 71c | 111.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Natus Vincere | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed MOUZ | 63c | 109.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…57e0backed MOUZ | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked MOUZ | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 99.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed MOUZ | 71c | 98.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…9649backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 88.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916c…669abacked MOUZ | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…356bbacked MOUZ | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…3e80backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.