MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffa1b5c38ab0eb2ce712e353c56cd09b12337af1b6153afc550d9dedcd50bb2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 25,072$12,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,013.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 52c | 14,443$7,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,565.91 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 69c | 9,743$6,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,721.83 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Over | 67c | 9,339$6,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,256.68 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 31c | 7,717$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,296.61 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…c9a7backed Over | 32c | 5,907$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.16 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 3,853$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,202.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 2,227$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…9900backed Under | 51c | 1,829$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 53c | 1,263$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.39 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.56 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Under | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 48c | 267.71$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.72 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Over | 67c | 152.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 70c | 92.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…74a9backed Over | 48c | 85.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 43c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 76.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 78c | 74.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked Over | 78c | 57.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 50c | 56.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 69c | 46.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 26c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 26c | 43.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 39c | 37.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Under | 36c | 36.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 70c | 20.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 78c | 19.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 76c | 13.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.