MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd29c4e4e2d7443221458839f2b1b594453eeacfb1a4c5872b28e790e4e0d024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 25c | 14,464$3,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,579.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 12,109$9,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,026.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 22c | 2,252$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.36 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…2e7cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 1,819$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 24c | 1,200$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Milwaukee Brewers | 78c | 1,178$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.95 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…259cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 1,013$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.16 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Atlanta Braves | 23c | 781.04$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.64 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 25c | 686.51$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 25c | 378.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 267.67$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 250$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 187.86$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 32c | 171.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Braves | 28c | 152.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…4883backed Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 140.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7e…3b66backed Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd03…60fbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…46cebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 126.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 124.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 121.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 93.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 88.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Atlanta Braves | 22c | 75.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 64.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Atlanta Braves | 23c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Atlanta Braves | 34c | 58.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Atlanta Braves | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Atlanta Braves | 24c | 49.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 28.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 27.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…47b6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 21.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.