MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e89ecab8dc8f816e577bd71e06db8b9000a2e0d89de5f8b15524e2248c63e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 9,342$3,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,171.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 8,215$5,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,806.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 2,428$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.26 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 1,808$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 1,568$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.3 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…1fbebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 1,033$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.27 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 919$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 901.17$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.4 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 741.8$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.21 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 499$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.67 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 392$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 256$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 214.38$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 165.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 149.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 75c | 125.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d5…1cb9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 111.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 94.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 17c | 86.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 82.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 80.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 64.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Atlanta Braves | 74c | 56.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 54.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 43.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 39.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 30.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Atlanta Braves | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Braves | 75c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.