CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Astralis vs. FURIA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffcb87eace5ebc844be178a7a425015a1dab7203a4b5f90138ca505274e4fbe4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIAof Astralis, FURIA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dcb…3e9ebacked Astralis | 30c | 33,303$9,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,991 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked FURIA | 69c | 24,214$16,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,533.85 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed FURIA | 57c | 10,608$6,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,606.35 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Astralis | 48c | 8,233$3,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,946.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…337dbacked FURIA | 45c | 7,509$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,129.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed FURIA | 72c | 6,530$4,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.09 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Astralis | 55c | 4,267$2,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346.7 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked FURIA | 43c | 2,927$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.74 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Astralis | 54c | 2,005$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.69 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked FURIA | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Astralis | 52c | 1,049$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Astralis | 57c | 1,015$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.68 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a7…ff3ebacked FURIA | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Astralis | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Astralis | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed FURIA | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…22efbacked Astralis | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Astralis | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Astralis | 58c | 678.36$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.45 | 524 | 56.3%295 W · 229 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa034…8fe9backed Astralis | 54c | 640$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked FURIA | 42c | 611.08$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.42 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…0008backed FURIA | 46c | 550$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…3ca0backed Astralis | 54c | 550$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed FURIA | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked FURIA | 49c | 475$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.25 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Astralis | 56c | 457.2$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.03 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Astralis | 56c | 453.24$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.9 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe416…d01bbacked Astralis | 54c | 450$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…a4e1backed FURIA | 46c | 365$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Astralis | 57c | 351.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Astralis | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…bbcabacked FURIA | 50c | 350$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…389fbacked FURIA | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Astralis | 60c | 325.02$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.01 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed FURIA | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…7ab0backed Astralis | 54c | 265$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Astralis | 54c | 250$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Astralis | 58c | 249.39$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Astralis | 57c | 200$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebce…f37bbacked Astralis | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 58c | 153.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…9191backed FURIA | 71c | 147.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed FURIA | 45c | 141$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Astralis | 19c | 110.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 217 | 23%50 W · 167 L | -35.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Astralis | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked FURIA | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed FURIA | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…51e2backed Astralis | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked FURIA | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Astralis | 56c | 80.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Astralis | 56c | 80.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed FURIA | 45c | 72.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…5174backed FURIA | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Astralis | 50c | 56.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed FURIA | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed FURIA | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked FURIA | 45c | 44.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…2444backed Astralis | 56c | 37.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5f…8989backed Astralis | 45c | 33.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Astralis | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed FURIA | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…479dbacked Astralis | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a48…b9ecbacked Astralis | 57c | 26.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed FURIA | 50c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.