Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: BFX (-2.5) vs DN Freecs (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffd591eb7247705e6ea8bea728dc4ddbbb795c5d9d2a49401d315e491b55d200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DN Freecsof BNK FEARX, DN Freecs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc04…f726backed DN Freecs | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 757 | 38.6%292 W · 465 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed BNK FEARX | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed BNK FEARX | 28c | 636.67$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.27 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked DN Freecs | 74c | 518.95$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.93 | 261 | 55.9%146 W · 115 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed BNK FEARX | 26c | 457.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed BNK FEARX | 28c | 430$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 443 | 35.4%157 W · 286 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…3332backed DN Freecs | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed DN Freecs | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,630 | 40.1%654 W · 976 L | +48.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed DN Freecs | 50c | 115.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 760 | 28.9%220 W · 540 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked BNK FEARX | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed BNK FEARX | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed BNK FEARX | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed DN Freecs | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked BNK FEARX | 49c | 40.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed BNK FEARX | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 420 | 55.2%232 W · 188 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…6acebacked DN Freecs | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: BFX (-2.5) vs DN Freecs (+2.5)this page
- Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs DN Freecs (+1.5)BNK FEARX won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: DN Freecs vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group StageBNK FEARX won
- LoL: DN Freecs vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 WinnerBNK FEARX won
- LoL: DN Freecs vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 WinnerBNK FEARX won
- LoL: DN Freecs vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 WinnerDN Freecs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.