TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: DN Freecs vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BNK FEARXof DN Freecs, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$261,576
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$312,307

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,576 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca22…6ff1backed DN Freecs0c25,660$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc287…50fdbacked DN Freecs25c20,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.982147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9772…4867backed BNK FEARX75c11,283$8,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,820.832060%12 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked BNK FEARX68c10,212$6,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,267.841752.5%219 W · 198 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed DN Freecs1c7,332$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.23775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e15…cfdbbacked DN Freecs35c6,138$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.081040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfadd…3955backed BNK FEARX70c5,678$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.054156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed DN Freecs8c4,136$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.491,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked DN Freecs18c3,921$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.721,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed DN Freecs31c3,814$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.841,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed BNK FEARX75c3,606$2,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.1223657.2%135 W · 101 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed BNK FEARX73c3,313$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.1148157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed DN Freecs32c3,213$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.2754353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed07…886abacked BNK FEARX78c3,000$2,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.122360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BNK FEARX70c2,962$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.681,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed BNK FEARX68c2,949$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.226246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed DN Freecs3c2,924$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8119122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked BNK FEARX64c2,822$1,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.9118961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c26…69c2backed BNK FEARX69c2,778$1,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.281241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…3eefbacked DN Freecs31c2,775$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.251855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BNK FEARX72c2,675$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.561,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BNK FEARX71c2,557$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.352,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed DN Freecs32c2,188$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70035035.1%123 W · 227 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed DN Freecs27c2,104$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57276953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked DN Freecs33c2,087$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.0617839.3%70 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed BNK FEARX68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked DN Freecs10c1,871$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.911,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6f6…68eabacked BNK FEARX73c1,868$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.582528%7 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed BNK FEARX74c1,805$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.7416040%64 W · 96 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked DN Freecs22c1,779$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.0711454.4%62 W · 52 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed DN Freecs38c1,652$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.9540435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed BNK FEARX42c1,518$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.1269756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed DN Freecs13c1,269$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9325952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed BNK FEARX68c1,205$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.821,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked BNK FEARX72c1,181$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.1985046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked BNK FEARX76c1,076$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.161,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed DN Freecs31c1,071$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.8126942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed DN Freecs21c1,065$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3543539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked DN Freecs25c1,053$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.8433251.5%171 W · 161 L+33.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed DN Freecs35c1,047$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.6285746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed DN Freecs29c1,039$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.894042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba0c…f837backed DN Freecs27c1,000$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.0621857.8%126 W · 92 L+18.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed DN Freecs1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102193.2%7 W · 212 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed BNK FEARX68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed DN Freecs31c999.95$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.983,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed DN Freecs31c946.89$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.5442840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed BNK FEARX69c935.81$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.8631644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb6d…942cbacked DN Freecs45c933.35$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.116738.8%26 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked DN Freecs21c900$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19020550.2%103 W · 102 L+15.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed DN Freecs49c900$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44150547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41e…9350backed DN Freecs49c873.5$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.1811736.8%43 W · 74 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8d…556bbacked DN Freecs58c861.61$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.741566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f75…ee2bbacked DN Freecs31c800.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.06837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3aa0…c326backed BNK FEARX66c800$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+87.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed BNK FEARX63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.657852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked DN Freecs26c777.28$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20096057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked BNK FEARX79c762.08$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.0850242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked BNK FEARX69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.6418755.1%103 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed BNK FEARX75c666.56$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.7344843.8%196 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed DN Freecs23c650$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.530661.1%187 W · 119 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed BNK FEARX53c627.94$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.241,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc57a…fe9fbacked DN Freecs20c611.36$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12014044.3%62 W · 78 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed BNK FEARX62c606.49$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.925038%95 W · 155 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed DN Freecs30c600$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1781,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked DN Freecs3c600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202147.6%10 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+51.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x905c…de69backed BNK FEARX67c599.99$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1983243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked DN Freecs31c599.98$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.991,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed BNK FEARX69c599.98$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.9942148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e5…993cbacked DN Freecs28c599.05$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.733246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed BNK FEARX58c555$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.11,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed BNK FEARX74c540.77$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.615854.4%86 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd690…93a6backed BNK FEARX66c528.86$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.4110160.4%61 W · 40 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed BNK FEARX68c524.47$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.831,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042b…bbf1backed BNK FEARX64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.3912055%66 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed DN Freecs20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc81f…16f1backed DN Freecs22c490.66$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.742245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5784…6788backed BNK FEARX71c477.2$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.26259.7%37 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed BNK FEARX69c470.29$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.791,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8943…e584backed DN Freecs42c469$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.984434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22c6…4574backed DN Freecs57c460.92$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6221756.7%123 W · 94 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked DN Freecs7c445.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9617132.2%55 W · 116 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed DN Freecs32c430.72$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8318744.9%84 W · 103 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed DN Freecs23c399.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9068443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed BNK FEARX63c391.23$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.761,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed DN Freecs29c372.27$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0821350.2%107 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed BNK FEARX69c365.05$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3752650.8%267 W · 259 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed DN Freecs36c354.31$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.871,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked BNK FEARX48c343.75$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.7523341.2%96 W · 137 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f9b…bc2fbacked BNK FEARX57c343.08$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.252062.3%324 W · 196 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0581…dd13backed DN Freecs33c333.33$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5498…126fbacked BNK FEARX62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.582955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed DN Freecs32c315.65$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0144335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c09…e714backed DN Freecs32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007950.6%40 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed DN Freecs4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1274462.2%463 W · 281 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed DN Freecs22c290.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6494134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed DN Freecs32c272.26$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2921819.3%42 W · 176 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed DN Freecs32c249.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8046033.9%156 W · 304 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked BNK FEARX64c245.68$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6228855.9%161 W · 127 L-20.1wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e78…29d0backed BNK FEARX78c238.36$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7624248.3%117 W · 125 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f0…564cbacked DN Freecs32c218.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7036331.1%113 W · 250 L+0.7wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.