TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: DN Freecs vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DN Freecsof DN Freecs, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$219,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$254,424

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,674 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbde3…4a49backed DN Freecs45c14,879$6,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,205.3823447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e15…cfdbbacked BNK FEARX37c13,906$5,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,119.331040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd501…b86ebacked BNK FEARX4c9,170$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.112446%57 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed DN Freecs78c7,964$6,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.6925952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e3…358ebacked BNK FEARX63c7,880$4,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,938.497647.4%36 W · 40 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-28.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed BNK FEARX1c7,332$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.23775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed BNK FEARX1c6,461$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.717889.8%77 W · 711 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked BNK FEARX67c5,935$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00059658.2%347 W · 249 L-29.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BNK FEARX2c5,231$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.492,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed BNK FEARX64c5,165$3,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,323.211,15849.2%570 W · 588 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed DN Freecs47c5,050$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,672.51,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed DN Freecs64c4,804$3,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750.7231644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked DN Freecs46c4,246$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.981,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed DN Freecs58c4,074$2,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.261,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked BNK FEARX71c3,923$2,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,796.9741752.5%219 W · 198 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed DN Freecs32c3,500$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.391,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed BNK FEARX8c3,383$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9126246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked DN Freecs52c2,900$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.4911454.4%62 W · 52 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed DN Freecs74c2,900$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74519839.9%79 W · 119 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8d…556bbacked DN Freecs35c2,856$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.21566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d29…8e90backed BNK FEARX59c2,730$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.0919559%115 W · 80 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed DN Freecs36c2,626$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.3385746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked DN Freecs71c2,587$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.962,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked BNK FEARX6c2,500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14018520.5%38 W · 147 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked BNK FEARX11c2,350$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.9217839.3%70 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b87…75d0backed BNK FEARX20c2,300$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4498951.7%46 W · 43 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed BNK FEARX59c2,222$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.1549466.8%330 W · 164 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed BNK FEARX5c2,200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11094134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed DN Freecs31c2,109$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.3282452.7%434 W · 390 L+41.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba0c…f837backed BNK FEARX55c2,000$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.5921857.8%126 W · 92 L+18.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c0e…fdfebacked DN Freecs37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.991735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa43d…df8ebacked BNK FEARX72c1,982$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.31955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick70cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked DN Freecs65c1,970$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.485046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed BNK FEARX58c1,907$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.3969756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked BNK FEARX65c1,891$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.5627447.8%131 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked BNK FEARX2c1,611$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.221,45613.2%192 W · 1,264 L-111.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed DN Freecs35c1,505$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.941,06028.5%302 W · 758 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed DN Freecs35c1,369$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.099348.4%45 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed DN Freecs38c1,353$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.9743151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed BNK FEARX64c1,300$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83110243.1%44 W · 58 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed BNK FEARX2c1,285$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2426942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed BNK FEARX1c1,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.235035.1%123 W · 227 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfadd…3955backed DN Freecs69c1,184$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.54156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed DN Freecs57c1,172$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.621,01647%478 W · 538 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed DN Freecs69c1,115$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.2916040%64 W · 96 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked BNK FEARX63c1,047$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.4526645.9%122 W · 144 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed DN Freecs38c1,000$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.7340435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9772…4867backed BNK FEARX2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202060%12 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed BNK FEARX2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202193.2%7 W · 212 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x042b…bbf1backed BNK FEARX37c999.98$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37012055%66 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed BNK FEARX61c999.97$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.981,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed DN Freecs34c999.95$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.973,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd690…93a6backed BNK FEARX56c989.99$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.7910160.4%61 W · 40 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed DN Freecs38c900$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.350547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked DN Freecs49c892.35$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.71,26737.7%478 W · 789 L+35.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked BNK FEARX57c817.36$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.1296347.7%459 W · 504 L+2.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed DN Freecs38c805.42$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.361,00554%543 W · 462 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e78…29d0backed DN Freecs52c777.16$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.4124248.3%117 W · 125 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff2…bfb4backed BNK FEARX13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked BNK FEARX65c768$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.7844751%228 W · 219 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed BNK FEARX56c760$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.61,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd3…fefabacked BNK FEARX66c752.7$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007460.8%45 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5784…6788backed BNK FEARX60c735.37$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.856259.7%37 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed DN Freecs56c714.11$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.1143539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed BNK FEARX69c712.7$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.6648157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc1…9932backed BNK FEARX9c705.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011937%44 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked BNK FEARX10c699.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2386…1a2dbacked BNK FEARX58c619.99$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.88438.1%32 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed DN Freecs36c555.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.561,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked BNK FEARX38c551.02$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.771,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked BNK FEARX37c515$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.251,00948.2%486 W · 523 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed DN Freecs56c513.23$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.7412433.9%42 W · 82 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed BNK FEARX67c477.53$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.0823657.2%135 W · 101 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed DN Freecs36c468.91$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.911443%49 W · 65 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed DN Freecs54c462.64$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.6448553.4%259 W · 226 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed DN Freecs36c458.72$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.091,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed BNK FEARX70c428.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30036260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked DN Freecs54c422.09$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.8950242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…5e03backed BNK FEARX64c407.51$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.892378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+45.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb99a…1300backed BNK FEARX70c401.53$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.071844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick63cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked BNK FEARX26c400$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10433251.5%171 W · 161 L+33.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed DN Freecs39c399.96$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.9886758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc923…783abacked BNK FEARX35c374.81$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.643920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed BNK FEARX44c371.98$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1544843.8%196 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3290…d1ffbacked BNK FEARX65c352$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.6211251.8%58 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked BNK FEARX65c346.99$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.551,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0581…dd13backed DN Freecs37c335.14$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked DN Freecs62c329.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.42,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f4a…a398backed DN Freecs37c328.21$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.217433.8%25 W · 49 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5498…126fbacked DN Freecs66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.032955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed DN Freecs62c302.96$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.98875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+52.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7d5…d4d3backed DN Freecs34c294.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.617656.6%43 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x217a…5dfabacked DN Freecs35c290$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.547557.7%274 W · 201 L-27.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed BNK FEARX21c280$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.144738%170 W · 277 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked DN Freecs50c275.68$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8625639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked BNK FEARX7c275.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5617132.2%55 W · 116 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc3…861abacked BNK FEARX34c270$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.27656.6%43 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c09…e714backed DN Freecs38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.167950.6%40 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22b9…6ae2backed BNK FEARX38c250.08$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.531338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed DN Freecs44c250$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.571249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.