Champions League · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfff669a98eb8407d561361907422d70fec994b2fd9b2dc14fc4536ac9d3cc19c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc311…44fcbacked Over | 21c | 12,148$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 18c | 5,671$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.7 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…ee7dbacked Over | 19c | 1,579$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 20c | 1,545$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.12 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 80c | 1,483$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.58 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 18c | 1,249$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.9 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 17c | 1,212$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 266 | 45.9%122 W · 144 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2668…2c56backed Over | 20c | 510.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 20c | 372$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 247.75$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…fc2abacked Over | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…d971backed Over | 13c | 176.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 18c | 144.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 19c | 142.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…799dbacked Over | 20c | 137$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 15c | 124.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 18c | 122.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…8a1bbacked Over | 19c | 108.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…e5a1backed Over | 16c | 102.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bff…f0cdbacked Over | 20c | 99.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 19c | 94.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Over | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 76cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +175.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb5…4438backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.