Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfffd3f9fe7d43d95bfc5c86d570db71abc1cefb6ba27a641b0b30236cbd5f384
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 1,256$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.48 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,018$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 678.37$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.67 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 614.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 527.49$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 19c | 479.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 412$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 241.44$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 237.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 193.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 185.63$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 72c | 185.07$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 182.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 170.04$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 76c | 160.7$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 142.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 49c | 141.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 52c | 139.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 22c | 137.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 116.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 111.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 58c | 111.16$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 108.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…1218backed Yes | 19c | 107.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 100.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…8948backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…8750backed Yes | 41c | 97.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 88.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 65c | 85.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 84.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 20c | 77.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 65.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 63.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 59c | 61.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 60.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 54.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed No | 61c | 51.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 46.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 46.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 34c | 44.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 53c | 39.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 38.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 65c | 37.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 33c | 30.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 42c | 26.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 47c | 25.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…9613backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 56c | 20.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 66c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.