Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x038b76b67979782f5a213094e15740efdf1ec309ce6954f2e9bbf025be2ab788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,232$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 10c | 577.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 47c | 339.17$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 62c | 317$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 64c | 304.43$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.02 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 291.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked No | 39c | 291.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 276.02$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 41c | 260.54$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 55c | 199.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 188.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 40c | 179.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 162$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 66c | 150.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 144.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 40c | 144.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 142$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 138.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 137.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 132.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 129.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 56c | 111.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 37c | 99.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 41c | 96.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 55c | 92.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 89.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 82.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 70c | 78.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 77c | 76.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 32c | 71.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 69.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 57c | 67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 59c | 60.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 56.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 45c | 52.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 59c | 50.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…6ca6backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 49.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 39c | 44.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 42.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 40.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 40c | 40.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 40.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 38.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 66c | 37.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 33c | 36.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 33.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 54c | 31.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 28.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 25.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 23.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 78c | 23.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 23.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 22.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 79c | 21.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 53c | 19.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 61c | 18.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 56c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.