CS2 · resolved market

Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x009da2819b44954caeed679a411f3d520326cf30d05f878cf089275de8c440bf

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: TheMongolzof TheMongolz, paiN
Resolved: Aug 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $22,182
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,182 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked paiN	67c	11,133$7,451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,451.41	5,095	55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L	+119.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed paiN	68c	3,664$2,474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,473.87	129	50.4%65 W · 64 L	+8.9wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked TheMongolz	32c	2,692$861 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,830.92	1,723	46.8%807 W · 916 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked TheMongolz	34c	2,253$759 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,494.62	1,523	51.5%785 W · 738 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked TheMongolz	33c	2,188$716 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,472.08	250	46.8%117 W · 133 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked TheMongolz	33c	1,800$594 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,206.41	283	40.3%114 W · 169 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed TheMongolz	32c	1,770$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,206.3	167	37.7%63 W · 104 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed TheMongolz	33c	1,210$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$810.73	338	44.4%150 W · 188 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed TheMongolz	34c	999.99$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$659.99	136	47.1%64 W · 72 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed TheMongolz	33c	900$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$606	1,041	39.9%415 W · 626 L	+20.5wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed paiN	66c	603.78$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.9	2,030	53.7%1,091 W · 939 L	+6.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbaf…2a03backed TheMongolz	34c	600$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396	116	43.1%50 W · 66 L	+7.2wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked TheMongolz	34c	600$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396	368	47.6%175 W · 193 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed paiN	67c	599.82$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	610	55.9%341 W · 269 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked TheMongolz	33c	499.98$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.99	403	49.1%198 W · 205 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed paiN	68c	294.12$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	324	61.4%199 W · 125 L	+23.2wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e96…e128backed TheMongolz	34c	250$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a1…d1eebacked TheMongolz	39c	173.43$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.47	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc59…35f7backed TheMongolz	33c	151.52$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.52	69	42%29 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed TheMongolz	38c	132.66$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.66	538	50.6%272 W · 266 L	-15.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad3…1af6backed TheMongolz	33c	121.21$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.21	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked TheMongolz	34c	120$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.2	393	38.2%150 W · 243 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5181…504bbacked paiN	68c	109.51$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.47	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed paiN	66c	100$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.38	659	46.6%307 W · 352 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed paiN	67c	99.98$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.99	364	57.1%208 W · 156 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked TheMongolz	34c	99.98$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.99	224	55.8%125 W · 99 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb3e…db66backed paiN	66c	94.66$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.48	51	37.3%19 W · 32 L	-5.0wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x79c6…4cf3backed TheMongolz	34c	93.61$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.99	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb42…176ebacked TheMongolz	33c	90.37$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.37	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa35e…0440backed TheMongolz	32c	62.5$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.5	108	43.5%47 W · 61 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78fb…56bcbacked TheMongolz	33c	60.61$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.61	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2175…4b33backed TheMongolz	33c	60.61$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.61	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62cd…7b19backed TheMongolz	33c	60.61$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.61	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee16…16a2backed TheMongolz	33c	60.6$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.6	297	52.2%155 W · 142 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked TheMongolz	48c	60$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.44	1,790	59.2%1,060 W · 730 L	+106.1wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb54c…7f56backed paiN	68c	54.76$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.24	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b4…6815backed paiN	67c	54.5$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.61	240	65.4%157 W · 83 L	+8.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed TheMongolz	34c	50$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	1,895	47.8%906 W · 989 L	-50.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed TheMongolz	34c	50$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	231	50.2%116 W · 115 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed TheMongolz	32c	45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.6	87	55.2%48 W · 39 L	+12.3wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+41%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked TheMongolz	34c	40$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8fe…ba40backed TheMongolz	32c	40$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.2	220	60.9%134 W · 86 L	+16.0wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8059…5addbacked TheMongolz	34c	38.18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	92	60.9%56 W · 36 L	+11.1wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0xe567…f0cfbacked TheMongolz	33c	36.36$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.36	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked paiN	50c	36.11$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.04	168	42.9%72 W · 96 L	-5.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95c2…421bbacked paiN	67c	35.56$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.83	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd416…0f17backed paiN	68c	32.85$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.1wins	+0.20per pick	53cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked paiN	38c	32.59$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	735	53.5%393 W · 342 L	+28.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd533…d6a1backed TheMongolz	32c	32$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.76	403	40.4%163 W · 240 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed TheMongolz	34c	30$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	604	51%308 W · 296 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x497e…a18abacked paiN	69c	28.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	71	57.7%41 W · 30 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x026d…8fecbacked TheMongolz	57c	27.94$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.14	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed paiN	67c	25.22$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.93	325	54.8%178 W · 147 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1f…1e14backed paiN	68c	22.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	194	53.6%104 W · 90 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ad…6b2fbacked paiN	54c	22.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.01	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-9.5wins	-0.30per pick	55cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0xac71…f74cbacked paiN	52c	21.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	87	37.9%33 W · 54 L	-15.9wins	-0.18per pick	56cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x8487…c1dbbacked TheMongolz	47c	21.47$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.41	486	52.3%254 W · 232 L	-21.2wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8818…f8acbacked paiN	66c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	172	61%105 W · 67 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed paiN	66c	17.81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	521	50.3%262 W · 259 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked paiN	68c	17.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	179	59.8%107 W · 72 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)this page
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group DTheMongolz won
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 WinnerTheMongolz won
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 2 WinnerTheMongolz won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event