Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00dc030a1724910f76a5e7860e59c9e67a34a5356fffa1a5feec0285c4577642
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 39c | 8,426$3,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,286.45 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Yes | 24c | 4,527$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked No | 76c | 3,538$2,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed No | 61c | 3,404$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.55 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 61c | 1,900$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.84 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 62c | 1,843$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.26 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 62c | 1,843$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.26 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 69c | 1,536$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.16 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…3287backed Yes | 39c | 1,409$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 72c | 989.1$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.41 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 38c | 808.1$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.08 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 39c | 726.77$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.44 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 74c | 696$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 29c | 509$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.61 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 68c | 501$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.46 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 69c | 429$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…9179backed Yes | 39c | 416.35$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked No | 61c | 413.05$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.09 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 18c | 382.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 31c | 299.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…cf7cbacked No | 62c | 266.08$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 62c | 264$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 63c | 203.34$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 31c | 183.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 39c | 180.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 30c | 179.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 59c | 178.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…b095backed Yes | 41c | 173.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Yes | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 38c | 157$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 152.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked No | 69c | 151.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 151$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 39c | 142$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 61c | 126.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 39c | 119$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 66c | 109.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 66c | 102.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…5aaebacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 25c | 99.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 22c | 82.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 24c | 82.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 16c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 66.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87a…2dddbacked Yes | 17c | 64.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 20c | 63.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…f6fcbacked Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 37c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 35c | 55.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked No | 76c | 55.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 74c | 53.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 21c | 51.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked No | 76c | 50.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed No | 76c | 50.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked No | 75c | 50.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 69c | 48.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 60c | 36.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 34.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…e107backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 61c | 23.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.