NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00e9da9ce9de38b8024b73bf3e5fd45c89b75ae6da9024792b663fc38e4b1d39

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: 76ersof Knicks, 76ers
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,801
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,801 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x635c…45c6backed 76ers	62c	24,079$15,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,078.88	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	61cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks	38c	3,162$1,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.31	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Knicks	40c	2,919$1,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,153.98	106	42.5%45 W · 61 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks	37c	2,852$1,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,042.55	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Knicks	40c	2,460$984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$984	119	40.3%48 W · 71 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Knicks	39c	2,147$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.33	357	44.3%158 W · 199 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Knicks	37c	1,892$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.04	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks	38c	1,698$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.35	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks	38c	1,659$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.07	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…08aabacked Knicks	43c	1,500$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$644.54	50	52%26 W · 24 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	61cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Knicks	43c	1,460$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.2	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Knicks	37c	1,191$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.13	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Knicks	40c	1,182$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.02	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked 76ers	59c	1,000$590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed 76ers	59c	508.47$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.47	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed 76ers	60c	500$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.5	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Knicks	41c	500$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.5	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Knicks	42c	380.95$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	83	44.6%37 W · 46 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks	39c	376.21$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.32	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed 76ers	56c	300$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed 76ers	58c	300$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126	195	56.9%111 W · 84 L	+20.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed 76ers	57c	260$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.8	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Knicks	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	268	42.9%115 W · 153 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Knicks	40c	104.18$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.67	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Knicks	39c	102.56$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	126	48.4%61 W · 65 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed 76ers	58c	102.07$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.01	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Knicks	39c	100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	98	45.9%45 W · 53 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Knicks	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Knicks	39c	99.62$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.85	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Knicks	40c	99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.85	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Knicks	43c	93.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7802…d5b4backed 76ers	58c	90$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	107	58.9%63 W · 44 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed 76ers	61c	65.57$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.57	153	55.6%85 W · 68 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c94…1b47backed 76ers	62c	53.5$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.5	90	50%45 W · 45 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked 76ers	76c	52.63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.63	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked Knicks	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	213	55.9%119 W · 94 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Knicks	37c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked 76ers	59c	42.37$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.37	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Knicks	42c	39.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x478e…324dbacked Knicks	43c	34.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed 76ers	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	288	56.9%164 W · 124 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Knicks	39c	34$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e8e…1ef0backed 76ers	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	99	54.5%54 W · 45 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Knicks	38c	31.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed 76ers	61c	28$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event