Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00f010a852437490afd36bcffeb023aa7fdf3c632b699732b4a63e758b5b0fb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Down | 0c | 4,189$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Down | 1c | 1,931$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Up | 15c | 1,333$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.55 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Up | 24c | 539.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.19 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked Up | 19c | 408.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.44 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Up | 21c | 351.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.94 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…403cbacked Down | 6c | 337.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…6bf8backed Down | 73c | 278.12$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Up | 29c | 252.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.71 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Up | 22c | 215.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.61 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Down | 79c | 208.22$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.74 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67fd…2b74backed Down | 78c | 198.52$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Down | 80c | 174.36$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.49 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Up | 17c | 170$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.4 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 23c | 164.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.03 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed Down | 68c | 146.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Up | 18c | 143.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Up | 17c | 141.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8692…6856backed Up | 35c | 102.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…c8aabacked Down | 72c | 99.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Down | 63c | 80.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…e688backed Down | 76c | 53.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 57cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Down | 65c | 47.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a57…f7ddbacked Down | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Down | 64c | 31.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e5…3e2fbacked Down | 73c | 28.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed Down | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Down | 49c | 26.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…3779backed Down | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Down | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.