MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0108943ea7ccef4186cbd3ca8290985c229a6b3cbdfd5fb63535d523e887866d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf559…f462backed Over | 46c | 27,091$12,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,500 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 48c | 20,279$9,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,733.39 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 18,568$9,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,715.4 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 18,209$9,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,524.97 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 8,712$4,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,097.5 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 47c | 5,984$2,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,811.1 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 5,046$2,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,371.62 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 3,335$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.48 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Under | 52c | 2,783$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.84 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 2,766$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 37c | 2,475$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.95 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 2,200$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 22c | 1,778$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.08 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 52c | 1,653$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.28 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 53c | 1,600$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 1,207$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 1,037$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.65 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 54c | 901.19$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.55 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 53c | 752.09$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.66 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 52c | 585$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 53c | 543$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.01 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 46c | 541.81$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.23 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Under | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 313.03$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 256.74$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 56c | 166.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Under | 55c | 153.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 71c | 102.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 48c | 102.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…1306backed Under | 55c | 78.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 54c | 73.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 33c | 51.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 25c | 47.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 54c | 46.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 57c | 43.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Over | 37c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 71c | 40.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 66c | 37.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e9…aa24backed Under | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 75c | 31.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 57c | 28.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 40c | 28.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x334a…d8b4backed Under | 53c | 25.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 63c | 24.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 71c | 23.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…f338backed Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 57c | 21.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 54c | 21.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 67c | 16.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.