MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8942da363df1551e10536f5f6ff4db286b8359a369390bbba04e995ab7947459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 1,814$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 41c | 1,564$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 58c | 1,207$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.98 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 38c | 675.13$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 59c | 648.04$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.47 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 61c | 416.85$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.57 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 36c | 370.57$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.89 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 61c | 332.2$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.56 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 330.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 65c | 269$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.4 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Over | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 177.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 59c | 174.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 38c | 170.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 150.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 139.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 130.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 31c | 114$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 62c | 104.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 40c | 100.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 63c | 100.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 47c | 98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 31c | 93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 60c | 57.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 46c | 53.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Over | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Over | 48c | 39.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 35.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…9874backed Over | 62c | 26.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 65c | 22.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 63c | 20.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed Over | 55c | 20.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.