Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01724ad8905777cf1f0baf9c55e8d7e58795e30ab2afae6f56e25b8b612da5f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 1,150$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.01 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 1,140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 16c | 687.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 19c | 661.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 600.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 571.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 18c | 404.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 18c | 367.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 340.57$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc7…7780backed Yes | 21c | 310.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 308.97$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 18c | 302.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 79c | 257.95$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 8c | 255.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 18c | 237.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 215.38$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 21c | 209.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 19c | 197.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 16c | 187.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 184.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 19c | 181.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 152.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 151.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 149.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 141.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…b31ebacked Yes | 18c | 137$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 20c | 134.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…79f2backed Yes | 30c | 121$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 117.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 18c | 110.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 108$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 104.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 104.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…9944backed Yes | 29c | 104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 17c | 100.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…f74fbacked Yes | 23c | 97.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 20c | 96.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 20c | 94.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 21c | 93.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 23c | 88.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 18c | 80.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 79.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 19c | 75.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 20c | 72.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 72.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 23c | 67.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 18c | 66.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 17c | 63.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c6…98dcbacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf357…10b6backed Yes | 21c | 57.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…a390backed Yes | 18c | 57.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 56.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe644…c5b8backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…5317backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes | 26c | 41.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…5dfabacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490d…45fcbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…e7d5backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…f76ebacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 74c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb447…62ebbacked No | 75c | 17.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa6…eb80backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.